Pre-polls climate remains fragile

Despite the authorities' efforts, Bangladesh's pre-election environment remains fragile, said the US-based International Republican Institute (IRI) in its assessment report published on Wednesday.

It noted that the Election Commission has introduced reforms to boost voter participation and strengthen operational preparedness, including plans for out-of-country voting. To enhance security, the EC intends to integrate the armed forces into its election framework.

"Despite these efforts, the pre-election environment remains fragile, with isolated but politically significant incidents of violence, questions about the neutrality of local officials, and lingering distrust of security forces," the report said.

The IRI mission in Bangladesh held 21 meetings between October 20 and 24 with the interim government, media personnel, civil society, international organisations to assess the election environment, and announced plans to send a 10-member delegation to observe the polls in February.

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The report comes amid disagreements among political parties over the referendum, its timing, and the July Charter -- containing 84 reform proposals -- whose implementation remains uncertain due to procedural ambiguities and divergent party positions.

The IRI observed that the EC has improved the voter list by removing 2.1 million deceased voters and adding 4.4 million previously unregistered ones. It also plans to print about 128 million ballots, including those for diaspora voters, and deploy up to 900,000 security and election personnel across more than 42,000 polling stations.

While transparency has improved compared to past elections, security remains a major concern. The report noted that the armed forces' increased role in election security reflects both government confidence and public mistrust of civilian law enforcement.

"Close coordination between the Election Commission, the military, and the police will be essential to ensure unified command and clear operational protocols," IRI said. It added that effective communication and defined authority lines will help prevent localised violence and maintain public confidence.

The report highlighted the rise of youth-led parties and high first-time voter turnout as positive signs of democratic engagement.

However, it warned that non-transparent candidate selection, low female representation, and the growing appeal of extremist movements threaten Bangladesh's secular political foundations.

"The trajectory of the July National Charter and how political parties institutionalise democratic norms, including those advanced by the student movement, will determine the direction of Bangladesh's transition."

Public sentiment reflects both anticipation and hope, with voter turnout expected to reach up to 80 percent. "Yet, established parties continue to dominate despite internal and reputational challenges," the report noted.

IRI further observed that limited security and weak law enforcement have prevented some parties from campaigning freely, reducing open competition. "The suspension of the Awami League from participating in the election raises questions about representativeness and the potential for election-day violence."

The report said the EC's enforcement mechanisms on campaign finance, expenditure reporting, and candidate eligibility remain weak.

Stakeholders expressed concern about the influence of unregulated financial resources or "black money". The IRI called for greater transparency in campaign financing and party membership records.

It said the interim government's success will depend on maintaining neutrality, ensuring security, and advancing the National Consensus Commission's reform agenda toward tangible implementation.

"The July National Charter provides a blueprint for democratic renewal, but its realisation depends on the next parliament's political will.

"Sustained dialogue, transparent election administration, and credible participation by political parties will be essential to mitigate polarisation and reinforce confidence in the transition."

Since last year's July Uprising, Bangladesh's civic space has widened considerably, though the environment for political participation and civil society engagement remains uneven.

The IRI recommended that the interim government and EC jointly establish a legal framework for the July Charter referendum and launch civic education initiatives to raise public awareness about proposed reforms and electoral procedures.

It further urged political parties to strengthen internal democracy by ensuring transparent candidate selection, preventing violence during nominations, and promoting women's participation.

The report also suggested that the EC publish clear criteria for accrediting citizen observer groups and propose legal amendments guaranteeing public access to political fundraising and expenditure data.