Blair faces setback in by-polls over Iraq

"I have voted Labour pretty much all my life, but next week I'll be switching," said the 53-year-old cabbie, gathered with a group of colleagues near the centre of Leicester, central England.

"I think a lot of people are very disappointed about Iraq," he explained, a comment echoed by many other locals in a city where almost a third of the population is of South Asian origin.

Leicester, both geographically and by reputation as close as one can get to the semi-mythical "Middle England", is currently bathing in the unexpected glare of national political attention.

Long-serving and popular Leicester lawmaker, Jim Marshall -- from Blair's governing Labour Party -- died suddenly in May, forcing the government to arrange a by-election to be held next Thursday.

On the same day, another by-election will be held in Birmingham, Britain's second-biggest city, to replace another serving Labour MP, Terry Davis, who is quitting parliament to become secretary-general of the Council of Europe.

Such mid-term electoral tests are, according to tradition, deeply unwelcome for serving governments, and these two are especially so given Blair's recent crises, notably over Iraq.

The prime minister's decision to back last year's US-led war to remove Saddam Hussein was deeply unpopular among many Britons, and his popularity has slumped further as violence continues to plague Iraq.

Ominously, precisely one day before the by-elections an independent inquiry into possible British intelligence failures before the war will publish its findings, which are tipped to criticise Blair and his ministers.