EU holds its breath as France votes

French President Jacques Chirac signs an autograph after voting for the French referendum on the EU constitution yesterday in Sarran, centre of France. A divided France began voting on the European Union's first-ever constitution in a historic referendum crucial to the future of EU integration, with final opinion polls suggesting the treaty would be rejected. PHOTO: AFP

EU leaders warn that a "no" vote risks wiping out at a stroke the fruit of three years of delicate negotiations, designed to prevent decision-making gridlock as the EU grows at the fastest rate in its half-century history.

While the bloc's political chiefs insist a "yes" victory is still possible, opinion polls have consistently indicated that the French will become the first to vote against the treaty.

"If the 'no' wins it in France Sunday, it will be a catastrophe," said Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who currently holds the 25-nation bloc's rotating presidency.

Like other EU leaders, he has been anxious to show there is no easy alternative to the constitution, insisting that there is no back-up plan if the French turn down the treaty.

There may be an element of strategy in their doom-laden warnings. But most analysts agree the EU would face an unprecedented situation if a major founding nation gets cold feet about greater political integration with other Europeans.

Although they disagree over what the outcome will be, a long period of debilitating introspection is widely expected.

The treaty was designed to streamline decision-making to avoid deadlock after the EU's historic enlargement last year to take in 10 mostly former Communist eastern European countries.

It also aims to boost the international profile of the EU with a president and foreign minister.

But many French opponents of the charter have seized on it for being too free-market friendly and not doing enough to protect France's generous and costly social welfare model.

Whatever way the vote goes, the referendum in France, which is followed three days later by another in the Netherlands, has raised the EU's profile among citizens.

"The French campaign has shown the usefulness of referenda in terms of raising awareness amongst the citizens," said Marco Incerti of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

"But it's raising awareness of the existence of the treaty, not so much its content," he lamented.

The campaigns for and against the constitution were filling the "information deficit" the EU has long-suffered from in the face of broad indifference and incomprehension to what happens in Brussels, he added.