The unsolved math of population

The election dust has finally settled. People now look to the new prime minister for results. Tarique Rahman stands at the helm of a nation of nearly 200 million. The campaign was won on trust and hope for change, but success will be measured by something far less poetic: the quiet, heavy weight of expectation carried by those same people.

We often discuss the challenges facing Bangladesh, job scarcity, stubborn inflation, healthcare shortages, declining education standards, deterioration in law and order, lack of infrastructure, as if they are separate fires to be extinguished.

In reality, they are branches of the same tree, fed by a single root: the size of our population. It is not about who we are. It is about how many we are.

Bangladesh’s economy currently sits at roughly $460 billion to $470 billion. It is an impressive figure. But when the national cake is divided among nearly 200 million people, the slices become thin.

Our per capita income stands at around $2,800. Vietnam has an economy of similar size, yet with about 100 million people its per capita income exceeds $4,000. The Philippines, with 115 million people, is near $3,500. Malaysia, home to just 34 million, crosses $12,000. This is not simply a matter of leadership or smarter policy. It is basic arithmetic. When wealth is shared among fewer people, quality of life rises.

The pressure is most visible in the job market. Each year millions of young people enter the workforce, but jobs do not expand at the same pace. The informal sector grows. Delivery riders multiply and battery rickshaws crowd intersections. When too many compete in low entry sectors, earnings fall and stability fades. Families delay better housing or quality education because their financial base feels uncertain.

Our infrastructure tells the same story of strain. Roads and bridges wear out ahead of schedule. Drainage systems fail during heavy rain because urban growth has outpaced municipal planning. Classrooms and hospitals are overwhelmed. Teachers struggle to maintain standards when numbers exceed capacity, and doctors are pushed beyond safe limits. Quality of life is not only about income. It is about the air we breathe, the hours lost in traffic and whether a hospital bed is available when needed.

While educated and financially secure families increasingly choose smaller families, less privileged communities often have larger ones. The gap widens inequality and deepens social frustration.

Supporting 200 million people requires vast public investment, yet the tax base remains narrow. Only about 3 million individuals file tax returns. A small group carries the burden for the nation, while others pay mainly through indirect taxes such as higher VAT. High rates on a limited base discourage compliance.

There is also an upside to this population. The tax net can be broadened with lower rates, reducing non-compliance and corruption.

There is more. Remittances of roughly $20 billion to $22 billion a year provide a vital lifeline, yet most migrants work in low-skilled roles. With sustained investment in technical training, the workforce abroad could move into higher-skilled professions. A large population could then become a stronger, more sophisticated remittance engine.

These 200 million people can become the force behind national transformation. Remittances and taxes will grow if the population is skilled, productive and better supported. But time is limited. The arithmetic of 200 million will not wait. No equation will balance until this one does.

The writer is co-founder and chief executive of Accfintax and associate director at Hoda Vasi Chowdhury and Co