<i>For less US involvement abroad</i>
Photo: AFP
As the US presidential race for 2008 is shaping up, domestic issues are now dominating the political debate. Even Iraq war, which earlier dominated the debate, is now down in the list of priorities. Economic issues, like subprime mortgage crisis and budget and trade deficits, are now on the top of the agenda. Environment and healthcare are other dominant issues. War on terrorism, which was the hallmark of the Bush administration, is no longer the major public concern. In fact, the U.S. public think that Al-Qaeda and its terrorist networks around the world are not such a great threat to the U.S. security. Despite its bravado, Al-Qaeda has not been able to carry out any attack in the U.S. soil after 9/11. The war in Iraq is now costing far more American lives and most Americans want an end to U.S. military involvement in Iraq. After the publication of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that Iran has abandoned its programme to acquire an atomic bomb in 2003, Iran has also receded from the political discourse. The U.S. political elites seem to be losing their interests in the world affairs outside the United States. Many US policymakers are calling for a review of America's involvement in the world. Although they still consider the world is a dangerous place, they also think that the United States is carrying disproportionately the burden for the global security and its allies in Europe are not contributing enough. As such, the United States must reduce its involvement and remain selectively involved in global affairs where its strategic and security interests are at stake. The priorities are: NATO, the defence of Japan, Taiwan and South Korea and the growing economic and military power of China. Even the Middle East, which has been the main concern of the United States, is considered a lesser concern. Although the United States is a big importer of the Middle Eastern oil, its dependence on the region is declining with Canada, Mexico, Venezuela and Nigeria becoming the major suppliers of energy to the United States. The United States is also developing bio-fuel as an alternative to oil. All this implies that the United States will be less dependent on Middle Eastern oil and consequently, its interests in the region will decline. But this may lead to a catch 22 situation. As the United States prepare to a phased withdrawal of its troops from Iraq, other regional nations will try to fill the vacuum and a conflict might arise out of this scramble for power. Shiite Iran is obviously looking for an opportunity to dominate the region long controlled by Sunni Arab states. By dismantling Saddam Hussein's minority Sunni-rule in Iraq, the United States has actually strengthened Iran's position. With the Shiite majority in Iraq dominating the military and security forces, Iran now has a Shiite ally it never had before. The Sunni Kingdom of Saudi Arabia feels most threatened by the prospect of a link-up of two Shiite countries in the Middle East. Although Sunnis are a majority in the Muslim world, most of them live outside the Middle East in Indonesia, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh and this gives the Shiites a strategic advantage as they are concentrated in Iran and Iraq. Moreover, Saudi Arabia has a restless Shiite minority who look to Iran as their leader. As such, any Iran-Iraq link-up after the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq is likely to increase Saudi Arabia's sense of insecurity. Despite its vast oil reserves, Saudi Arabia's small 25 million population is no match to Iran's 70 million and Iran's armed forces are many times bigger than the small Saudi armed forces. This is why there is a lingering fear of the Iranian domination even if Iran doesn't explode any nuclear device. Israel is another country which is concerned about Iranian threat to its security. Iranian threat to Israel comes mainly from its support for Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Thus peace in the Middle East remains fragile unless the regional countries make efforts to ensure it. Iran is obviously in an advantageous position in any conflict and may like to fish in troubled water. As such, complete U.S. withdrawal from Iraq may only lead to a bigger conflict. To avert the looming crisis, the regional states must work out a compromise on how to live in peace. Also, five power blocs -- the U.S., China, the E.U, Russia and India -- that are trying to assert their global roles, must act in concert to stem any future war in the Middle East. With the United States no longer willing to carry the burden of the global security, other powers must step in to ensure peace and stability.
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