What's going on in Lebanon?
The presidential election in Lebanon has been postponed again. 'Again' would be an understatement as it is now the 11th postponement of the election.
The Lebanese had been waiting for two months for a new president. A candidate has finally been agreed upon after the 7th postponement and weeks of bitter stipulation. Now has begun a fight over how to elect him and who to elect for the cabinet.
What is going on within the country, one might ask. Why can't they just elect a president, and if they can't, why does it matter anyway? Lebanon's position, neighbouring the two opposite poles of the Arab world--Syria on one side and Israel on the other -- is borderline bizarre, to say the least. The predicted class of civilisation is currently being played out in proxy in this tiny piece of land.
Both Syria and Israel actually had soldiers deployed in the country until recently, while the Shiites and the Sunni of the country were fighting the 25 years long civil war.
Israel withdrew the final troops as late as 2000, except from the disputed Sheba farm area. Syria left only in 2005 following a popular movement originating from the assassination of the prominent anti-Syria figure, Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. But they have left Lebanon widely divided into two blocks.
The anti-Syria block is headed by the 14 alliances, protagonists of which were in the forefront of the army withdrawal movement. The pro-Syria block is headed by ever so powerful Hezbollah. This militant turned political group has both Syria and Iran as its allies; according to some, as mentors.
So far, Syria has allegedly been using the former president Emil Lahoud as a political remote-control to manipulate the country's politics. Now that his term has ended, especially as a UN tribunal prepares to look into the matter of Hariri's assassination with the help of the anti-Syria prime minister, some assume it even more necessary for Syria to have control over the goings-on in Lebanon through a new president.
And that is where the trouble begins.
Although March 14 has a majority in the parliament, it's insufficient to elect a nominee of their choice by themselves. The parliament itself is barely standing after the walk-out of Hezbollah and allied MPs last November. March 14's scant majority, too, is under threat as the anti-Syrian parliamentarians show a movie-like inclination to follow the footsteps of Rafiq Hariri. There has been eight such assassinations in two years, the responsibility of which is vehemently denied by Syria. Still the threat is so real that the March 14 MPs are residing with their family at a high security hotel near the parliament building.
Even if the current impasse is broken, it still doesn't resolve the core problems of the country. The physical proximity of Lebanon with Israel would not let it rest in peace minding its own business. Iran and Syria try to pull Lebanon into their alleged 'axis' for obvious strategic reasons, with Israel and USA pulling it in the opposition direction to prevent exactly that. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is reportedly stockpiling and improving communication network in case of another battle with Israel. Apparently, all it needs to ignite a war in the region is one or two soldiers dragged inside the Lebanese side of the border!
So, what's really going to happen in Lebanon? A tricky question!
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