Periscope
ARE WE REALLY ON THE BRINK?
Photo: Star File
In Purgatory
Bangladeshi politics in 2013 eerily resembles what it used to be seven years ago. In those gory days of winter, a remote-controlled President-cum-Chief Adviser and his loyal council of Advisers were bent on holding a one-sided election, which the main opposition Awami League (AL) and its partners decided to boycott. Pitched battles between the rival alliances in the last three months of 2006 had left scores dead and hundreds injured, prompting the declaration of a State of Emergency and the inception of a caretaker government that ruled the country beyond its mandate. In 2013, only the names have swapped sides. In fact, present Sheikh Hasina regime's abrogation of the provision for a caretaker government has broken the existing status quo in such a way that it might damage the prospect of a peaceful handover of power in the coming days, meaning more violent street agitation might be forthcoming. There is no doubt that it is a huge success of the ruling party that Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), as some newspaper reports suggest, are now open to the idea of an all-party government to run the country during the interim period. The question that now remains is who is going to head the so-called all-party government. Given the level of animosity and mistrust that the two leading ladies of Bangladeshi politics share with each other it is indeed natural for the BNP to think that after it joins the present cabinet no matter what decisions its ministers make Sheikh Hasina will overrule their decision using her executive power as the Prime Minister. The fear, to some extent justified though it is, has a tinge of irony in it for it is the BNP which in 2006 planted President Dr Iajuddin Ahmed as the Chief Adviser who overruled some important decisions that some caretaker advisers made to hold a free and fair election in January 22, 2007. Annoyed with Dr Ahmed's actions, four advisers later resigned, setting the ground for the 'soft-coup' of January 11, 2007. Be that as it may, it is difficult to tell if Sheikh Hasina will resign or will entertain the idea of limiting some of her executive powers, which will effectively reduce her to first among equals in the cabinet, which other democratic countries practice. Having said that, it will not be impossible for the Awami League led 'interim' government to hold an election without the participation of the BNP and some other opposition parties. But it will definitely come at a heavy price--its ramification will be huge and the AL and its junior partners might not be able to bear the burden. It can fairly be said that western election observers might be reluctant to send observer missions to Bangladesh if they do not consider the election participatory. To make matters even more complicated, it is not befitting for the AL to act in a manner that will make it look like undemocratic.
Photo: Star File
Meanwhile, the election commission has declared polls schedule, sparking a nationwide protest that has claimed nine lives in the first 14 hours. What makes the situation even graver is the reach of violence in remote areas. It is indeed shocking to see public properties vandalised and rivals slaughtered or beaten to death in faraway villages.
Spread of such violence and absence of rule of law are the two ingredients for a civil war. It is however highly unlikely to happen for the ethnic or linguistic divide that push a nation towards such a brink is absent in Bangladeshi society. But the present crisis has the ability to snowball into a long running conflict if violence at a large scale persists and the government loses control over a large part of its population. The worrying part is that both the signs of a long blown out conflict are looming over the horizon. If the present crisis is not addressed through a transparent and meaningful dialogue it might spill over and threaten regional instability, not to mention fanning the radicalisation of a large, disenfranchised (in case of a one-sided election) population. That does not bode well for either Bangladesh or its foreign friends.
Bangladesh now nestles at a crossroads. Or the nation is standing in purgatory, a place for temporary punishment for mortals in the afterlife before they are taken to heaven. The country can use this opportunity to bring about reform and some national reconciliation to ensure clean politics and peaceful handover of power in the future.
Election Hurried is Democracy Buried
In the last 22 years since the restoration of democracy, power has been handed without violence only once, and that too was also mired in chaos. This is alarming for the country's democracy, and the reason why a growing number of ordinary Bangladeshis are disenchanted with the system. It is high time that the country thinks of a way to quickly bring about some changes in its political culture that will address these worries. It cannot happen overnight, let alone through a hurriedly held election boycotted by the hugely popular main opposition. In fact, the reform might take long to take shape, and it is difficult to tell how it can happen by keeping both the major parties where they are now. On top of it all, change needs to come from within Bangladesh's political institutions and the top leadership of both the parties have to realise it quickly.
We know that extremism takes root when people are not allowed to choose their leaders in the way that think best suits them. This is even more important in a country like Bangladesh, which is strategically located in South Asia, especially the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh's political instability can easily make it a breeding ground for fanaticism. Or it can easily turn into an example to the outside world that a Muslim majority nation can become a beacon of democracy and rule of law.
twitter: @ahmedehussain
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