BNP’s long march back to power

The 13th national election will be remembered as the one when voters reclaimed their franchise.

But it will also be remembered as a turning point in Bangladesh’s political history -- the day the BNP regained power after 17 years, and the day Jamaat-e-Islami, the country’s largest Islamist party, made its most significant stride so far, securing the highest number of seats in its history.

For Jamaat, this was more than just an electoral victory. It marked its transformation into the main opposition, a position it had never held before.

BNP and Jamaat’s paths have long been intertwined. Once allies, they shared power and took to the streets together against the Awami League government.

Their partnership reached its peak in 2001, when the four-party alliance swept to power with a two-thirds majority, bringing two Jamaat leaders into BNP’s cabinet. Both were later hanged for war crimes.

“Although there were negative perceptions about the BNP’s involvement in extortion after August 5, Tarique Rahman’s return to Bangladesh had a cooling effect. His presence restrained some of the party’s controversial elements…”

DU Political Science Professor Sabbir Ahmed

However, the 2024 mass uprising changed everything.

The political terrain, in the absence of the Awami League, shifted as the two parties became rivals in the electoral arena in the election that paved the way for democratic transition following the uprising.

Dhaka University Political Science Professor Sabbir Ahmed and Jahangirnagar University Government and Politics Professor Al Masud Hasanuzzaman both emphasised that the BNP endured 17 years of repression and hardship.

This long period of struggle generated a strong sense of public sympathy toward the party. The recent passing of its long-time leader Khaleda Zia further deepened that sympathy, creating a favourable environment for the BNP in the election.

Speaking to The Daily Star, Sabbir said, “Although there were negative perceptions about the BNP’s involvement in extortion after August 5, Tarique Rahman’s return to Bangladesh had a cooling effect. His presence restrained some of the party’s controversial elements, while also calming the media hype that had built up.”

According to the unofficial results declared by the Election Commission in 297 seats, the BNP alone won 209.

Its allies Ganosamhati Andolan, Bangladesh Jatiya Party and Gono Odhikar Parishad won one seat each.

Jamaat secured wins in 68 seats, while its allies National Citizen Party bagged six, Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis two, and Khelafat Majlis one.

Islami Andolan Bangladesh won only one seat, while independent candidates secured seven seats.

The BNP’s journey back to power has been arduous.

Founded by Ziaur Rahman in 1978, the party burst into the scene with a sweeping victory in 1979, winning 207 seats. Over the decades, it alternated between electoral triumphs and boycotts -- refusing to contest the 1986 and 1988 polls, returning to power in 1991, winning a short-lived two-thirds majority in February 1996, and then losing in June of the same year.

Its alliance with Jamaat in 2001 brought another landslide, but the momentum faded with a poor showing in 2008. Boycotts in 2014 and 2024 kept the BNP out of the race, while its participation in 2018 was overshadowed by allegations of ballot-stuffing by the Awami League, which firmly held the reins of power.

Yesterday’s victory finally ended its longest stretch out of power and restored its place at the helm.

Both Sabbir Ahmed and Al Masud Hasanuzzaman noted that Tarique’s leadership during this critical phase provided the party with much-needed guidance. His campaign style was interactive and engaging, breaking away from the traditional one-way speeches of political leaders.

Another factor was the absence of the Awami League from the electoral field, which made the BNP’s path to victory easier.

The professors argued that the BNP’s manifesto, along with its earlier 31-point reform proposals, attracted voters by promising governance reforms and institutional restructuring. The July Charter and BNP’s notes of dissent also signalled their reformist stance, which they are likely to pursue in parliament now that they have a public mandate.

Hasanuzzaman said the BNP’s election manifesto managed to attract the electorate by offering a variety of commitments. “Earlier, its 31-point programme had laid out a broad framework of reform proposals. Following that, their emphasis on reform commissions further strengthened their position. Together, these elements contributed to a favourable verdict from the voters in support of the BNP. In summation, its success was crafted through these combined efforts.”

Banned after independence for collaborating with Pakistan, Jamaat was revived in 1976 and contested elections under different banners before re-emerging under its own name in 1986, winning 10 seats.

Its best performance until now came in 1991, with 18 seats and 12.13 percent of the popular vote.

The party bagged three seats in June 1996. In the next election in 2001, it won 17 seats, and also got into the cabinet. It won only two seats in 2008.

The party’s fortunes fluctuated in subsequent elections, and in 2013 its registration was cancelled through a High Court order.

Yet, Jamaat remained a force in street politics and alliances, even contesting the 2018 polls under BNP’s symbol while being banned officially.

Thursday’s breakthrough marked its beginning as a formidable opposition.

The BNP-Jamaat alliance, once a four-party bloc, expanded into a 20-party combine in 2012 but dissolved in 2022 after BNP distanced itself.

Despite this, both parties played significant roles in the mass uprising of 2024, which reshaped Bangladesh’s political order.

Yesterday’s results now bring them back into prominence -- though not as partners, but as rivals whose resurgence will define the contours of Bangladesh’s democracy in the years ahead.

According to Sabbir, Jamaat’s rise was the result of long-term preparation and a shift in its ideological positioning.

“Jamaat moved away from rigid conservatism towards a more moderate stance, which increased their acceptability. Their nomination strategy was calculated, even including minority candidates, though they failed to nominate women. Jamaat’s urban influence has grown, and in some constituencies, they benefited from the BNP’s rebel candidates.”