Handover is political gamble for Bush

With a flurry of recent polls showing most Americans uneasy with events in Iraq, analysts across the political spectrum agree that the changeover could represent a pivotal moment in US attitudes about the war.

Progress in establishing an Iraqi government capable of bearing more of the military burden could help Bush reverse the growing doubts about his management of the conflict and fears that it has reduced rather than enhanced US security.

Conversely, if the new government cannot establish legitimacy and order, pessimism about the mission's prospects and disillusionment over Bush's initial decision to invade Iraq is likely to solidify and even spread, experts say.

"There is risk and there is opportunity for Bush in the hand-over, and it is one of the most important events in an event-driven election," said Andy Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

One key question is how Americans measure success in the weeks ahead. With US officials indicating that they expect American forces to cede more security responsibilities to Iraqis, the number of US casualties could decline. But as the terrorist attacks across Iraq last week show, a reduced US role could mean more violence and Iraqi casualties.

"The administration is gambling on the notion that Americans will be thankful that there are fewer American casualties, even if the place is blowing up," said Ivo Daalder, a former national security aide to President Clinton and coauthor of a recent book on Bush's foreign policy.

For now, the hand-over does not appear to be significantly affecting Sen. John F. Kerry's strategy in the debate over Iraq. Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, has insisted since last fall that a key to success in Iraq is delegating more authority to the international community in return for more financial and military aid.

But the emergence of the transitional government could complicate Kerry's arguments by reducing the visible role of American officials and encouraging other nations to become more involved in Iraq.

"It makes it trickier for him," said Thomas Donnelly, a resident fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute.

The transition, though, holds greater risks for Bush, most agree.

The changeover comes as polls show widespread concern over Bush's direction in Iraq. Although a mid-June Pew survey showed an increase in the percentage of Americans who thought events were going well in Iraq, most recent polls have portrayed public gloom over the struggle to stabilize the country.