The fundamental challenge facing policymakers in implementing a contractionary budget will be patience

The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) today said that the government's target to reduce inflation to 6.5 percent in the fiscal year 2024-25 appears overly ambitious

Budget day is turning into our very own Groundhog Day.

The FY 2024-25 budget falls short of assessing the depth of the economically challenging time.

The government has hiked the supplementary duty on mobile top-ups alongside VAT on SIM cards, pushing up costs that will be incurred by mobile and internet users, which will inevitably put a financial strain on access to essential services.

In yet another blow to stock market investors, the government plans to impose a capital gains tax on them from next fiscal year.

The new budget for the upcoming fiscal year is unlikely to provide respite from one of the longest spells of sustained inflation in Bangladesh as the government’s measures appear to be missing the impetus required to contain the price spiral.

The food ministry spent less in fiscal 2022-2023 compared to fiscal 2009-2010, according to data on expenditure over the last 13 years.

The government has slightly reduced the allocations for transport and power and energy compared to the outgoing fiscal year.

Bangladesh’s per capita income will be $3,000 at the end of FY25 as the government expects economic growth to recover. Per capita GDP is projected at $2,780 at the end of FY24. It has been growing steadily over the last two decades. It was $700 in 2000 and about $300 in 1990.

While the cost of living remains high, with the inflation rate hovering at over 9 percent throughout the year, no ray of hope came for the common people in the budget declared yesterday. This is upsetting for the low and middle-income groups of society. 

The budget for fiscal 2024-25 proposes a total expenditure of Tk 797,000 crore with a total tax revenue of Tk 541,000 crore, resulting in a deficit of Tk 256,000 crore.

Finance ministers don’t possess crystal balls to captivate the audience with mystical allure. They don’t have magical foresight. They are real-world agents of economic policy. In times of crisis, which often repeats itself in modern capitalism, they chart a path out of the dark abyss. Sometimes they prove to be successful, sometimes not.

The proposed national budget for FY25 has remained a widely speculated topic for the people of this country. Bangladesh has been navigating a precarious global economy over the last 24 months, and the economic aftereffects of Covid-19 and the Ukraine-Russia have not only complicated macroeconomic management but created widespread concerns across both domestic and international actors.

Budget FY25 What does it mean for you?

Prices up

The proposed budget for 2024-25 lacks creativity and offers no solutions to the many complex challenges facing the country’s economy, economists have said.

Where will the money come from?

Backtracking on its promise to eliminate black money, the government has once again made room to allow both individuals and companies to whiten money without facing scrutiny and by paying a 15 percent tax, a move that drew sharp criticism from economists and civil society.

Where will the money go?