UK’s trade preference shift offers Bangladesh rare post-LDC relief

Amid Bangladesh’s fragmented preparation for LDC graduation, and at a time when unpredictable global geopolitical dynamics are reshaping competitiveness, some quietly consequential and rather rare good news has emerged from the United Kingdom. It relates to recent changes under the UK’s Developing Countries Trading Scheme, known as the DCTS. The changes mean that even after graduation, Bangladesh will continue to access the UK apparel market on the same terms it currently enjoys as an LDC. Yet this development has attracted little attention, despite potentially far-reaching implications for Bangladesh’s post-graduation export competitiveness.

What changes after graduation and why it matters

Like the EU’s GSP system, the DCTS is a tiered arrangement, with different levels of market access linked to income level and development status. At the top tier are LDCs, which qualify for Comprehensive Preferences, offering duty-free market access with the least restrictive rules of origin, including single-stage transformation for apparel. The second tier, Enhanced Preferences, is intended for economically vulnerable non-LDC countries. It provides duty-free access to most products, but with tighter conditions. The third tier, Standard Preferences, applies to other countries and offers more limited tariff reductions.

LDC graduation means Bangladesh moves from Comprehensive to Enhanced Preferences. Earlier, the UK announced that there would be no safeguard mechanism attached to a non-LDC beneficiary receiving duty-free access for apparel under Enhanced Preferences. By contrast, under the EU system, non-LDC countries with a large share of EU apparel imports face automatic safeguard measures.

This means that even if Bangladesh qualifies for GSP Plus after graduation, its apparel exports could still face MFN tariffs.

Until recently, however, the UK, like the EU GSP Plus, applied double-transformation rules of origin for apparel. Countries under Enhanced and Standard Preferences were required to undertake both fabric production and garment assembly domestically to qualify for duty-free access. The latest changes allow Enhanced Preferences beneficiaries to source up to 100 percent of apparel inputs from abroad while still qualifying for duty-free entry to the UK.

This shift is particularly significant given the UK’s expanding network of free trade agreements with countries such as India and Vietnam, which have large-scale and deeply integrated supply capacities. Without greater flexibility, post-LDC countries like Bangladesh would have faced a far tougher competitive environment, where nominal duty-free access coexisted with binding origin constraints, while FTA partners benefited from full tariff elimination and stronger backward linkages. Such an outcome would risk turning LDC graduation into an economic penalty, contrary to long-standing commitments to ensure smooth transitions.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR EXPORTS AND JOBS

The UK is Bangladesh’s third-largest export market, accounting for about 10 percent of total merchandise exports. Apparel makes up more than 90 percent of these shipments. In 2024, Bangladesh exported roughly $3.3 billion worth of clothing to the UK, including $2 billion in knitwear and $1.3 billion in woven garments.

This distinction matters. Knitwear benefits from stronger domestic backward linkages and generally meets origin requirements. Woven apparel depends heavily on imported fabrics and is therefore far more exposed to restrictive rules of origin.

Under double-transformation requirements, a large share of woven exports would fail to qualify for preferences and face standard tariffs. Extending single-stage transformation under Enhanced Preferences substantially reduces post-graduation risks and moderates competitive pressure from other exporters gaining tariff-free access through UK trade agreements.

Quantitative modelling by Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID) shows that rules of origin matter at least as much as tariffs in determining competitiveness. Under a counterfactual scenario with double-transformation requirements, annual apparel export losses were estimated at $283 to $350 million, mainly in woven garments. The UK’s decision removes this barrier and averts these losses.

General equilibrium simulations using the GTAP framework suggest that without the DCTS changes, Bangladesh’s apparel exports to the UK could have fallen by more than 25 percent as graduation coincided with stronger competition from FTA partners. With single-stage transformation retained, projected losses fall from about $1.18 billion to around $150 million, reflecting competition rather than binding origin rules.

Based on current employment intensity, this policy shift is estimated to safeguard close to 100,000 jobs, more than half held by women. This is significant amid a sharp decline in female participation in manufacturing over the past decade.

WHAT THE UK GOT RIGHT

Allowing single-stage transformation under Enhanced Preferences reduces the risk of abrupt export losses after LDC graduation and supports a more predictable adjustment. It sets a constructive benchmark for post-LDC trade engagement and offers a reference point for discussions with other partners, particularly the European Union.

Rules of origin flexibility, however, should be seen as a transition tool rather than an endpoint. Long-term competitiveness will still depend on strengthening domestic textile capacity and backward linkages.

The UK’s approach shows that LDC graduation need not be economically punitive if trade preferences are designed with the evolving competitive landscape in mind. It also raises the bar for other partners, where rigid origin rules risk turning graduation into a disruptive shock rather than a managed transition.

The author is an economist and chairman of Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID). He can be reached at m.a.razzaque@gmail.com.