Dhaka-NY flight
Having read the recent article in the Financial Express dated 14th August about Biman's resumption of its Dhaka-New York flights, I have a few comments to make and some questions to ask publicly to the CEO of Bangladesh's national flag carrier. Firstly, as a north-America resident of Bangladeshi roots I am delighted to hear the news because it can cut my journey by as much as 40%. Secondly as a well-wisher of the ailing carrier, I look forward to this becoming a profitable route. Thirdly, I question why the flight has to make a stop on-route to Dhaka from New York based on both technical and business reasons.
However, there are some assumptions I need to make to justify my thoughts and I leave it up to the experts in your readership to judge the fairness thereof. The article claims that there are some 200,000 Bangladeshis residing in the United States; let's add another 50,000 to cover those who live in Canada. If we assume about 90% of these folks travel to Bangladesh at least once every two years, and 75% of them live east of the Texas-Ontario diagonal and are therefore likely to fly on the JFK-DAC route. This brings the total number of such customers to 168,750. In other words, there are 231 people who travel to Dhaka from New York every calendar day and an equal number who travel back.
The current cost of an average economy class return ticket from this region (Toronto, New York, Washington DC etc.,) on Etihad, Emirates and Kuwait Airways to Dhaka is about $1,150.00 (Tk 80,500). This is equivalent to $575 one way (Tk 40,250). Therefore, the gross-earning for the airline operator per o/w flight is $132,825 (Tk 93 Lakh). Interestingly, Biman claims they made a loss of Tk 75 Lakh ($107,142) per New York Dhaka flight using a full load of 274 customers in their ancient DC 10-30s. This implies the cost per o/w seat to Biman on this flight was $875 or 150% higher than other carriers.
A Boeing 777-300 ER has a range anywhere between 5,200 and 9,300 miles with a capacity to carry 300 to 360 passengers. Such an aircraft is more than adequate to cover the 7,000 nautical miles over the arctic between New York and Dhaka. Assuming an average speed of 550 miles/hr this aircraft would take about 12.7 hours for this flight. Recently, Biman wet-leased (cost includes aircraft, crew, maintenance, insurance, fuel and ground handling) a Boeing 747 at $5,300 per block (flying) hour. The current wet-lease cost of a Boeing 777 ranges between $10,000 and $14,000 per hour. Taking a mid-range value of $12,000 per hour, it would cost Biman $152,727 to operate one such flight. Assuming a configuration and fill factor are such that there are 330 economy class passengers per flight, their cost per seat would be about $465. If Biman charges the same as what the foreign carriers are charging, they would make a profit of $110 per seat or $36,300 (Tk 25.4 Lakh) per one way flight instead of a loss Tk 75 Lakh!
As long distance traveller, I'll pay $575 o/w for a non-stop flight that lasts less than 13 to nearly 24 hours it takes going via Abu Dhabi, Dubai or Kuwait. In fact, I would be more than happy to pay extra for the added convenience and avoiding the high risk of mistreatment by natives of the Gulf countries. So there is a pure business case for Biman to start such a non-stop service. All the complaints from Biman about political pressure from Bangladeshi expatriates in north America seem ridiculous. However, it is obvious that having such a direct flight between Dhaka and New York will benefit Bangladesh's trade with the region many times.
While I am happy to see positive ideas emanating from Biman's management reflected by good business decisions, I think it would be a huge mistake to break up the New York - Dhaka journey by stopping in a third country like the UK. Not only will it take away the biggest attraction of a shorter travel time, but it will also add to the anxiety of having to deal with travel restrictions on Bangladeshi passport holders in those countries, not to mention delays and elemental uncertainties related to any additional stop-over.
I look forward to seeing Bangladesh's national flag carrier on US soil again soon!
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