Big country . . . and small countries
Pallab Bhattacharya studies a diplomat's thoughts
India's Foreign Policy, Coping With The Changing World, Muchkund Dubey, Pearson
Many votaries of India's neighbourhood diplomacy, should be happy with India's former Foreign Secretary Muchkund Dubey's latest book, India's Foreign Policy: Coping With The Changing World, which will hit the shelves in about ten days or so. The 300-odd page book, published by Pearson, has not only devoted considerable space to India's relations with Bangladesh in the chapter, 'Dealing with Neighbours' but also contains two full chapters on 'Democracy and Governance in Bangladesh' and 'Indo-Bangladesh Economic Relations'. It is marked by a freshness of insight, balanced analysis and cogent arguments born out of experience as a participant in India's foreign policy-making and international negotiations as a career diplomat. Dubey reached the pinnacle when he became foreign secretary. One of the main reasons for the book turning so much attention on Bangladesh is perhaps owing to the fact that the writer was India's high commissioner in Dhaka at a time when it was in the throes of political turmoil. Dubey's book makes out a compelling case for India's strong relations with its neighbours. It notes that "in any strategy of India's foreign policy", relations with neighbours should be accorded the highest priority. The author writes, "India…..takes its smaller neighbours for granted and does not pay much attention to their problems, aspirations and expectations from it. These countries, with the exception of Pakistan, do not figure prominently in India's foreign policy priority. High-level Indian policymakers have advocated a policy of benign neglect of smaller neighbours…." Dubey analyses in detail how smaller countries in India's neighbourhood suffer from "apprehensions of loss of identity and the fear of threat to their sovereignty emanating from the bigger neighbour" and "do not want to come close to India even if it is clearly in their interest to do so". He argues that there was a tendency among India's neighbours to "multilateralize" bilateral problems with India and cited Bangladesh's attempt to involve Nepal in the negotiations on the distribution of waters of the Ganga at Farakka to buttress his argument. The author also points to "a tendency on the part of the smaller neighbours to gang up against India for extracting concessions from it or reducing its influence in the region". He believes this was at least partly the motive behind the initiative taken by President Ziaur Rahman of Bangladesh towards creating SAARC. According to Dubey, India should be mindful more of the psychological than objective factors in dealing with its neighbours and should be "extremely sensitive" about popular perceptions in those countries because perceptions often play a greater role than the reality on the ground. For instance, the writer says, India "could have explained more effectively and persuasively than it did" its withdrawal of water in 1975 at Farakka after the construction of the barrage there, which was "projected by Bangladesh government and perceived by many Bangladeshis as an affront to their sovereignty". Dubey pitches for India always maintaining a dialogue with its neighbours on a regular basis at all levels, including the highest, and is critical of former Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao's not undertaking an official visit to Bangladesh during his five-year tenure between 1991 and 1996. Interestingly, the writer says the reason given by Rao "privately" for not visiting Bangladesh as prime minister was "that the Bangladesh government would raise during the visit the issue of distribution of water at Farakka, which would put him in an embarrassing situation because he had no solution to offer". "But this is hardly convincing", says Dubey. While the writer acknowledges that India as the bigger neighbour has the responsibility to solve problems with its neighbours and "show a degree of magnanimity" in its approach to solving the problems, he makes it clear "this cannot be an entirely unilateral affair." In fact, he contends, "there can be no solution without neighbours recognizing India's compulsions and imperatives and adjusting their positions accordingly". In the chapter on democracy and governance in Bangladesh, Dubey traces its history from 1971 till date and even wades into the debate between Bengali nationalism and Bangladeshi nationalism. But he believes the divide between these two forms of nationalism is "somewhat artificial. For, the overwhelming number of those who believe in Bangladeshi nationalism are the ones who are steeped in Bengali culture and almost all those who believe in Bengali nationalism are never forgetful about their Islamic identity". Some of the observations by Dubey in the book have the potential to trigger debate in Bangladesh, like the Awami League leadership, has "constantly felt the need, for the sake of winning votes and remaining in power, to placate and pander to religious elements, including the extremists" and that the suspension of other parties during the BAKSAl regime "was one of the reasons behind the frustration that led to the violent coup against Sheikh Mujib in August 1975". He says both Ziaur Rahman and H M Ershad followed the same path in legitimizing themselves in power by floating political parties and aligning with religious parties. The writer tears into the efforts by the military-backed caretaker government advisors between 2006 and 2008 to keep Sheikh Hasina and Begum Khaleda Zia out of the electoral politics of Bangladesh and their belief that Prof Mohammad Yunus would be able to win a free and fair election when pitted against the leaders of the Awami League and the BNP. He also says the caretaker government should have realized that corruption in the two mainstream parties was not going to be eliminated just by targeting their leaders, for the evils were too "deep-rooted" in society and that the next rung of politicians in these two parties who were expected to assume leadership after the exit of Hasina and Begum Zia are "dyed in the same wool". Turning to India-Bangladesh economic ties, Dubey advocates a bilateral Free Trade Area in goods followed by a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) covering goods, services and investments. India has FTA with Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan and CEPA with Japan, South Korea, Singapore and is negotiating the same with Indonesia. Overall, Dubey's book is an important contribution to understanding India's foreign policy, the different inputs that have gone into shaping it in the context of the changing strategic, political and economic scenario the world over.
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