West Bengal goes to polls amid SIR row

The Indian state of West Bengal goes to the polls today after a controversial electoral revision that critics say has stripped millions of their voting rights.

The BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is hoping to seize power from the Trinamool Congress (TMC) led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.

The BJP has never governed the state of roughly 100 million people and has mounted an all-out push to wrest control.

While the contest is expected to be close, the TMC, in power since 2011, is projected to retain control for a fourth term. Several opinion polls show the party maintaining an edge.

Ahead of the first round of polling, the deletion of 9.1 million names, more than 10 percent of the electorate, has drawn sharp criticism from political parties and rights groups.

The revision process, known as the Special Intensive Revision (SIR), has been carried out across states and territories, with the Modi government saying it aims to prevent “infiltrators”, a pejorative term largely referring to illegal Muslim immigrants, from voting.

Experts and organisations say Muslims and other religious minorities have been disproportionately removed from the rolls in West Bengal, prompting allegations of deliberate targeting and persecution.

While the BJP has established dominance in many Indian states, analysts say, it has struggled to gain a foothold in West Bengal, in part because it lacks support among the state’s sizeable Muslim population.

In some Muslim-majority constituencies, nearly half the voters have been removed, including those with documents showing they are Indian citizens by birth and that they or their parents were listed on the 2002 voter roll, the cut-off for eligibility.

A Vote Tracker survey by VoteVibe, released on CNN-News18, projects a comfortable lead for the TMC, with 174–184 seats in the 294-member assembly — well above the 148 needed for a majority.

The survey also indicates a strong showing by the BJP, projecting 108–118 seats.

In the 2021 elections, the TMC won 215 seats, while the BJP secured 77. Although the BJP failed to unseat Banerjee, the result marked a significant rise for the party from its previously marginal presence in the state.

A C-Voter survey also suggests a close contest, projecting the TMC at 44 percent of the vote share and the BJP close behind at 40 percent.

Voting will be held in two phases -- on April 23 and April 29 -- covering 152 and 142 constituencies, respectively. Counting is scheduled for May 4.