The Power of Ballots
Photo: Sk Enamul Haq
The voting was over in the afternoon. They were enthusiastic about collecting election results from different polling centres through the polling agents of ruling Awami League-backed mayoral candidate Ajmat Ullah Khan. Local leaders and supporters of AL who gathered at their party office in Gazipur city could not wait to find out who won.
The month-long hard work for their mayoral aspirant did not make the AL workers feel exhausted. But the evening of July 6 brought an arctic darkness for them. The results coming out from different polling stations did not make them jubilant, rather shattered their hopes. They were demoralised sensing a defeat in their stronghold and eventually lost interest in gathering results from their own election agents. And most of them left the AL office by 9:00 at night.
Despite his popularity in the area, AL candidate Azmat Ullah Khan could not win the battle. Photo: Palash Khan
The lights were out at the AL chief's political office in Dhanmandi around 10:00pm on the same night as disheartened leaders and workers headed home early. The early morning of July 7 announced the defeat of the AL-led alliance, its mayoral candidate, and also of Sheikh Hasina who has been leading the alliance. Thus, the defeat of AL-backed mayoral candidate has left the ruling party leaders stunned into silence.
"We never expected such a debacle in our stronghold," Rajob Ali, general secretary of Tongi Thana unit of AL, told this correspondent the day after the defeat in the battle of ballots.
What will the policymakers of the government and AL now do after the stunning defeat in Gazipur which came hot on the heels of a humiliating defeat in the four city corporations of Rajshai, Khulna, Barisal and Sylhet? They may hold one or two meetings with AL chief and PM Sheikh Hasina to find out the reasons behind the defeat in the recent city polls as some senior AL leaders including Obaidul Quader have been speaking.
The crucial question is: will they be able to discuss the real reasons that contributed largely to the defeat? Will they specify some crucial national issues like the stock market crash, the Sonali Bank-Hall Mark scandal, the Padma Bridge scam, the railway gate scam by a minister, violent and criminal activities of ruling party men, particularly of the Bangladesh Chhatra League activists?
BNP now wants more battles of the ballot to defeat the AL. Photo: Palash Khan
The chances are slim. The reason is pretty clear. These issues scream the sheer failure of the government of Sheikh Hasina. Her government has miserably failed to take appropriate measures to address the issues that brought down people's skyrocketing confidence in the AL to the ground. And none of the ministers or party policymakers will have the courage to speak the truth in Hasina's presence. So, every possibility is there to conceal all the issues. But this will not work. Concealing them at their own forums will not divert people's attentions and remove their grievances. Whenever they will have a chance they will protest casting votes against the AL.
AL Presidium Member Obaidul Quader on Sunday rightly stressed the need for taking measures to correct their “mistakes to turn the negative votes into positive ones."
Ballots being counted to find out who would be the nextmayor of Gazipur City Corporation. After its defeat in four cities on June 15, AL leaders and workers hoped for a comeback in Gazipur by winning the mayoral election. There were strong reasons for it as the district is considered a bastion of the party. AL nominated candidates have done well in the district in all the parliamentary polls since 1991. The AL secured all five seats in the district in the last 2008 parliamentary polls, defeating the opposition candidates by big margins. At the 1996 elections, the party nominees won all four seats. The BNP had managed to win two seats in 1991 and one seat at the 2001 polls, while the AL won two and three seats in the two elections. Even in the local bodies' election, AL leaders have traditionally held the record of doing well. The polls performance record of AL-backed mayoral candidate Ajmat Ullah Khan was also better than his rival Mannan. Ajmat contested three consecutive polls to the Tongi municipality, which is now a major part of the city corporation, and was elected every time. The situation in former Gazipur municipality, which is another major part of the city corporation, was almost the same. Awami League leader AKM Mozammel Huq had served as the mayor of the municipality for more than three decades before getting elected as a lawmaker from a Gazipur constituency in 2008. Yet the AL high command desperately tried to secure a win in Gazipur to revitalise its grassroots leaders and workers, who had been demoralised over the defeat of the AL-backed mayoral aspirants in the four city corporations. But the resounding victory of BNP-backed mayoral candidate shattered the AL's hope. This is the power of ballots. The communications minister too has admitted its force. "There is nothing called a fort to people. They can raze any fort to the ground if they lose trust [in any party]." His remarks suggest the lack of people's confidence in the AL-led government and the party even in AL's fort. What can be the situation in the country's remaining parts where the AL does not have such a stronghold? Imagine, what can be the results when the AL will contest the next parliamentary polls after a few months? The defeats in Rajshahi, Khulna, Barisal, Sylhet and Gazipur did not appear suddenly. The recent defeats have just made longer the procession of defeat which began in 2010 when the AL-backed mayoral candidates were defeated to BNP favourite in Chittagong City Corporation election. In Narayanganj City Corporation polls in 2011, the AL-backed mayoral aspirant faced a humiliating defeat to party's another leader who contested the polls without the party's support. In 2012 in the Comilla City Corporation election, AL supported candidate was defeated to the BNP backed mayoral contender. AL-backed mayoral aspirant won only in Rangpur City Corporation polls held at the end of 2012. The story of AL defeat goes on. In the beginning of 2011, AL favourites were outperformed by their rivals supported by the BNP in the municipality polls countrywide. AL-blessed mayoral candidates having 88 mayoral posts were behind the BNP-backed candidates who bagged 92 posts. The results surprised the AL leaders. AL now looks very weak. The story of its overwhelming success in the battle of ballots four and a half years ago has turned into a distant memory. In December 2008 parliamentary polls, the party alone won more than two-third majority. Its rival BNP had faced a humiliating defeat after bagging only 29 parliamentary seats. The recent election results strongly speak of a healthy comeback of the BNP, shaking up the ruling AL's skyscraper of power which has been built in the last parliamentary polls.
A woman campaigner seeking votes for an independent candidate. Photo: Rashed Shumon
Enforcement of dozens of hartals or blockades or any such street agitation would not have shaken the AL government in such a way. The power of ballots has exposed the fragile state of AL's political influence. The BNP's strategy to join the battle of ballots setting aside the street agitations for the time being has worked well. The party now wants more battle of ballots to defeat the AL. The party leaders are now demanding election to bifurcated Dhaka City Corporations. They want to keep the momentum alive until the next parliamentary elections.
And their movement for installation of a non-partisan election time government will get some new blood after the whopping victories in the city polls. Already demoralised by the defeats, the ruling AL leaders and workers may not be able to strongly counter the opposition men in the coming days. The government will also face difficulties to run the administration, as the heavily politicised bureaucracy will not care about much the directives of the ministers. The bureaucrats have got the message; they have understood the people's pulse. Many of them will change sides to take benefit from the new regime. The law enforcers will not be any exception. So the government and the AL will have to go through tough times in the coming days if they are not able to take some game changing moves.
Will the government be able to take extraordinary measures to divert the flow of this brewing storm? Will the AL be able to take measures to boost up party's grassroots leaders and workers to prepare them for the battles in the coming days?
Before taking such steps, the policymakers of both the government and the AL need to admit their mistakes. If they search for the reasons for the defeat they might come across factors such as the party's organisational weakness, the opposition's "propaganda" against the government, use of religion by Hefazat-e-Islam.
It is true that the AL's organisational capacity is weak countrywide, which is also true for the BNP. So, putting the blame only on organisational weakness will not work. And before that, the party policymakers should think twice before concluding that the grassroots level leaders are not solely responsible for the weakness. The central leaders must shoulder the failure.
And Hefajat-e Islam's campaign against the AL-backed mayoral candidates in the recent city polls is of course one of the reasons for their defeat. But the use of religion against AL is nothing new. This time the use has just got some new strength due to the prevailing political situation. In the past, the AL has fought the propaganda and it will have to continue the fight. But the way the AL has tried to take blessings from Hefazat men in Gazipur to win the battle has exposed the party's lack of confidence in its own power. The party needs to engage a cross section of people in its efforts to fight Hefazat.
The AL should immediately hold a series of meetings with its grassroots, seeking their opinion and suggestions to take measures to prepare the party for the coming days. For the AL policymakers, there is no alternative now but to listen to their grassroots level leaders who are the lifeblood of the party.
The writer is Senior Reporter, The Daily Star.
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