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Sheikh Hasina has turned up with a formula to avert the looming crisis that eerily resembles a Commonwealth Secretary General-backed solution that she rejected around two decades ago. To make matters resemble more and more like a tragicomedy (especially its Greek variant), Hasina, at that time, rejected something that she cannot afford to concede now–in 1995 she rejected a proposal where Khaleda offered resignation as PM and said that she would hand over power to a BNP MP.
Khaleda's speech, on the other hand, has reminded one of some strange African ritual where the help of dead ancestors is sought to ward off evil at some crucial moments of one's life. She proposes 20 names to chose a 10-member interim government, some of whom are dead, and some are so ill or so unwilling that it will be difficult to fill the cabinet.
What is interesting about Khaleda's speech is not her interim government formula, which covered only a small part of her speech. There are lofty promises that she has made to address the concerns of stakeholders some of whose interest encompass the globe. Only time can tell if she has been successful in impressing them.
Ministry of Truth
Bangladesh Awami League's (AL) present General Secretary Syed Ashraful Islam is no stranger to politics. When his father Syed Nazrul Islam was the acting President of the Bangladesh government in exile, Ashraf took up arms, joined the ranks of ordinary freedom fighters and fought valiantly for the nation's freedom. Instances like Ashraf's can hardly be found in the history of war, where a President's son is sent to the battlefield and that too at the front.
Of late, especially before the Gazipur City Corporation (GCC) election, Ashraf has hardly been as active as the ruling party's 2ic should be seen in public. His less illustrious colleague Mahbubul Alam Hanif was usually seen hogging the idiot box. Last week Ashraf has said that if the BNP doesn't participate in the next general election, deposed military ruler HM Ershad's Jatya Party (JP) will join the polls outside the AL-led Mohajote alliance; in case the BNP decides to do otherwise, the JP will remain under the AL's shadow.
Ashraf's remark has understandably irked Ershad, as it has demoted the latter's party to the Awami League's plaything. The former President has also called Ashraf's comment untrue. It is actually difficult to tell though if Ershad is speaking the truth, as history teaches us that he is prone to changing his mind as swiftly as a lizard sheds its tail or a touch-me-not folds its leaf.
But Ashraf's JP comment has made an election held under a Sheikh Hasina-led government look like a shoddy affair. A minor casualty of Ashraf's words is the JP itself though--Ershad has been a joke in Bangladesh politics, mostly because he seems to be notoriously fickle minded and also partly because at the GCC polls, his last minute support of the AL couldn't save the day.
Ashraf has some explaning to do regarding his post-Gonobhaban dinner comment. Ershad has done his bit by expressing his 'shock and disbelief' and if the AL General Secretary does his bit with some strong adjectives, we might expect a little political drama.
Futurology
Last week the BNP Secretary General has sent a letter to his AL counterpart, requesting a dialogue on the most pressing issue of the day--an election-time government. This missive has prompted a phone call from Ashraf. History of political dialogue in the country has not been pleasant though. The last time it happened was when late Abdul Mannan Bhuyan and Abdul Jalil had a round of discussions on the person who would head the caretaker government. The leaders' failure to reach a conscientious led to the bloodbath that brought about the changeover of 1/11.
Recently Nobel laureate Professor Muhammad Yunus has rightly said that he won't accept the holding of an election without the participation of all the parties. Any attempt to hold a one-sided election will be suicidal for the AL, even if it is, in line with Ashraf's remark, participated by the JP. Election in Bangladesh is a festive occasion where people flaunt the mark of indelible ink on the back of their thumb, and take pride in being able to choose their lawmakers. Ershad's 1986 general election was participated by all parties but the BNP, which said it would not join the polls under Ershad, who actually usurped power and nominated himself the country's ruler in a bloodless coup four years ago. The BNP's 'uncompromising' stance earned them the throne in 1991, the first free and fair election held under a neutral election-time government.
Another such big lesson that history teaches us is the 1996 election, which was boycotted by all the major political parties. This time, the BNP walked the electoral road alone: the parliament survived a few days, and the BNP lost the election that was held a few months later.
It won't be wise for the Awami League to preside over a one-sided election, for it will permanently dent its image as the party that led the country towards its independence. It will also give some degree of legitimacy to the general strikes/ siege programmes that the opposition parties might call. A parliament without the BNP might not even be internationally acceptable. Muhammad Yunus has a point.
Presently, the future looks bleak. The dialogue between the 2Ics of both the parties might have postponed an October 28, 2006 like situation for a few days. But Hasina being Hasina and Khaleda being Khaleda, (Ershad being Ershad) can we really afford to feel optimistic?
twitter: @ahmedehussain
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