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Victory>Defeat>Victory
Supporters of 18-party alliance backed mayor candidate in Barisal City Corporation Election 2013 engaged in campaigning. Photo: Star File
Photo: Prabir Das
What does the BNP really want from the June 15 battle of ballots in four city corporations? Will it be a triumph for the party if the mayoral aspirants backed by the BNP win all the four mayoral posts? Or will their defeat in a questionable election give the main opposition party some political mileage?
Does the ruling Awami League high command want the party backed mayor candidates to win all the four mayoral posts? Do the party's top leaders think that an election victory, at the fag end of the government's tenure, will portray the popularity of the AL-led government before the nation? Or will the defeat of AL-backed candidates in a fair election brighten the government's image and as it will be able to tell people that the government is capable of holding polls in a free and impartial manner?
Photo: Star File
The four city corporations polls– Rajshahi, Khulna, Barisal and Sylhet– are supposed to be non-partisan in nature, as electoral laws do not allow political parties to field candidates. After quite a while the two rival camps have locked horns in the four city polls. They believe that a big political mileage can be gained if they win the all four mayor posts ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections. It is true that the election will give them some idea about their position in the cities. Considering all aspects, both the camps have extended full support to their mayoral candidates who are local leaders of the parties. The central high commands of both the BNP and AL have directed their grassroots to ensure victory.
History tells us that the AL and BNP backed mayoral aspirants will have a face-off in Rajshahi and Khulna City Corporations for the first time in two decades. The first mayoral polls to the two city corporations were held in 1994, when a BNP-led government was in office, and the BNP-backed mayoral candidates won. At the same time elections to Dhaka and Chittagong City Corporations were held and AL-backed mayoral candidates won defeating the BNP-backed candidates.
Photo: Star File
The BNP-backed candidates found themselves lucky in the second elections to Rajshahi and Khulna city corporations held in April, 2002, for the AL did not support any candidate as the party was reeling from the shock of defeat in the 2001 parliamentary elections.
The AL-backed mayoral aspirants won in the last polls to the two city corporations held in August 2008 as the BNP did not support anyone protesting the state of emergency declared by the Fakhruddin Ahmed-led caretaker government. It ensured easy win of the AL-backed mayoral candidates in Barisal and Sylhet city corporations as well.
AL and BNP-backed candidates went head to head for the first time in Barisal and Sylhet city corporations polls in 2003 in which AL supported mayoral candidate had won the Sylhet battle while pro-BNP mayoral candidate won in Barisal.
In the battle of ballots who will finally smile? Voters will determine the fate of the mayoral aspirants on June 15. In view of some political analysts, the election results may influence the political atmosphere in the coming days. Also it may leave some messages for the parties ahead of the upcoming parliamentary polls.
If everything goes smooth, the AL-led government is sure to claim credit and say that the city polls have proven once again that an election held under party-government can ensure free and fair polls, and the next parliamentary polls will also be free and fair although the AL-led government will remain in office during the election. The ruling AL policymakers will gain some strength. In that case, the city polls must be held in a free and fair manner. And even if any of the mayoral candidates backed by the AL fails to win, it will not taint AL's image and prevent them from claiming the credit for holding free and fair elections. Under such circumstances, the defeat may be better than winning the election.
In such a situation, BNP may try to say that the government's popularity is waning. And people have cast votes to highlight the government's 'failure' to run the country. This campaign will not sustain for a long time.
But if irregularities happen in the polls to ensure a win for the AL-backed mayoral candidates, it will add fuel to the opposition's demand for the restoration of a non-partisan election-time government. Therefore, the BNP-led alliance will be happy if there are irregularities in the polls and the candidates backed by them are defeated. The rigged Magura and Mirpur parliamentary by-elections had intensified the then AL-led opposition parties' street agitation for the introduction of the caretaker government system. The widespread rigging by the then ruling BNP and the support of the local administration had ensured their win. The 'victory' had damaged the credibility of then BNP-led government. People had lost confidence in the then government and they also started to believe that free and fair parliamentary polls were not possible keeping a partisan government in the office during the elections. Finally, the caretaker government was introduced in March 1996.
Photo: Star File
Now, the country is going through a critical juncture as the political situation is getting volatile by day. The cancellation of the caretaker government system by the AL-led government in June 2011 has triggered political uncertainty. The BNP-led 18-Party-Alliance has decided to wage the final round of street agitations from mid June to force the government to install the non-partisan election time government. The victory of the18-party alliance mayor candidates will not help the party in its agitation. But their own defeat and election irregularities will work like a tonic.
The writer is Senior Reporter, The Daily Star.
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