Now or never in Atlanta

It is now or never. If a World Cup semifinal is not reason enough to hit top gear, very few things are. That is the level both teams will hope to reach when defending champions Argentina face England in Atlanta tonight (1:00 am Bangladesh time).

The two most battle-hardened sides of this edition meet in a contest carrying layers of history -- the 1982 Falklands War, Diego Maradona’s “Hand of God” and “Goal of the Century” in 1986, and heated World Cup battles in 1998 and 2002.

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Argentina, the masters of survival, have faced the weakest opponents among the four semifinalists by average FIFA ranking, yet scraped and strained their way into the last four. Despite the favourable oppositions, the Albiceleste have endured the most gruelling route, with even 39-year-old Lionel Messi admitting the physical toll of their draining knockout victories. They beat Cape Verde 3-2 after extra time, recovered from 2-0 down with 11 minutes remaining to defeat Egypt 3-2, before overcoming Switzerland 3-1 after extra time.

Meanwhile, England announced themselves with a riveting 4-2 win over Croatia, raising hopes that a squad brimming with elite talent had finally moved beyond Gareth Southgate's cautious, safety-first approach. Yet Thomas Tuchel's side have struggled to replicate that statement performance ever since, gradually slipping back into England's familiar tournament identity -- pragmatic, risk-averse football that rarely captures the imagination or showcases the full breadth of their attacking talent, yet one that continues to grind out results. They drew with Ghana, survived a scare against DR Congo, beat Mexico with 10 men in brutal Mexico City conditions in the Round of 16, then edged Norway 2-1 after extra time in hot and humid Miami.
 

The bottom line is that both teams have repeatedly found a way to win even when the odds appeared stacked against them. Neither, however, has produced the convincing, dominant display expected of a potential champion.

Messi remains the axis around which Argentina turn. Few would argue against Lionel Scaloni’s unwavering strategy of funnelling everything through the eight-time Ballon d’Or winner, who has scored eight goals and often single-handedly carried Argentina over the finish line.

Scaloni’s narrow setup through the middle -- designed largely to keep Messi in the thick of things and within close proximity of goal -- has paid dividends. At times, however, it has prevented Argentina from exploring their other strengths. Their wing play has been limited, making the Albiceleste predictable and leaving them struggling to unlock defences when opponents crowd Messi out. That has significantly curtailed their chance creation and often forced them to search for alternatives.

Despite their initial dependence on Messi, eight different Argentina players have scored. They have also developed the best dead-ball attack of this edition, but will be up against one of the tournament’s strongest aerial defences.

England will not mind Argentina’s narrow shape. Their wingers stay high and wide and will fancy attacking the full-backs one-on-one. Seventy-four percent of England’s threat has come down the flanks, almost evenly split between left and right. Tuchel’s side also occupy seven of the top 10 places for maximum speed, led by Anthony Gordon, Djed Spence and Marcus Rashford. Their campaign has increasingly carried the face of Jude Bellingham. His six goals match captain Harry Kane’s tally -- the first time two players from one team have scored six each in one edition.

While set-pieces will be vital for England as well, scoring from open play will be another challenge.

Argentina conceded only 0.52 expected goals per 90 minutes, bettered only by Spain’s 0.31 among all 48 teams. Spain went five matches without conceding before Belgium scored against them in the quarterfinal.

Argentina and Ecuador are also the only teams yet to allow a shot from inside their six-yard box. Centre-backs Lisandro Martínez and Cristian Romero have stuck close to each other and defended tightly -- an understandable tactic considering the fact that 27.1 per cent of shots from the six yards have been converted to goals, compared with 13.7 per cent from elsewhere inside the penalty area.

Interestingly, England have attempted only nine shots from inside the six-yard box, fewer than Canada’s 12, Ecuador’s 11, Norway’s 10, Spain’s 14, and Argentina’s 10.

Set pieces may be a better route for England to find the back of the net tonight, but they also need to keep in mind that Argentina have allowed just 0.63 expected goals from dead-ball situations.

As it stands, England cannot switch off, especially against a team who are the tournament’s late-show specialists, scoring 10 goals of their 17 after the 76th minute -- 58.8 percent of their total.

Both teams have survived everything placed in front of them, but survival alone will not be enough now. In Atlanta, one of them must finally seize the moment, find the performance this campaign has been waiting for, and turn another night of struggle into a place in the World Cup final.