Poll predicts clean sweep for BJP in riot-hit Gujarat

Most psephologists have given BJP headed by Chief Minister Narendra Modi not less than twenty of the total of 26 parliamentary seats in Gujarat, a result political analysts agree is the result of polarisation of votes caused by the communal riots in early 2002.

But this time around, when an estimated 3.36 crore voters are expected to exercise their franchise tomorrow to decide the fate of 162 candidates, the questions being asked are: is the effect of the riots on the wane? Will Congress be able to overcome its organizational weaknesses, cash in on anti-incumbency factor and spring surprises by winning more than six seats it had won in the previous parliamentary polls in 1999?

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Two years after the gruesome riots in the state, the issue has not taken a backseat in the electioneering for 2004 as Congress party raised it when attacking the Modi government in the state following the Supreme Court's order squashing the acquittal of 21 accused in the burning of 14 people in Baroda during the riots and shifting of the trial of the case outside Gujarat. The Congress also harped on the "misrule" of the BJP government.

The BJP, on the other hand, has refrained from using its "Hindutva" card in the run up to parliamentary polls this time in sharp contrast to the party's campaign for December 2002 elections to the state legislature that brought the saffron party back to power in Gujarat.

Instead, the BJP has focused on the foreign origin of Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, the Supreme Court's permission to raise the height of a crucial dam on river Narmada and a much-publicised irrigation scheme launched by Modi government.

Interestingly, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, in one of his election rallies in the state, praised the behaviour of Pakistani spectators during recent India-Pakistan cricket series and urged Indians to "learn from them". The political message of such a remark is not lost on the electorate, say analysts.