Iran going nuclear
This is with reference to Point Counterpoint: "Nuclear Iran and the Middle East," by Abdullah A. Dewan (Oct. 1).
Former Iranian President Rafsanjani, considered a moderate, speaking in a Friday sermon promised: "If one day, a very prominent day of course, the Islamic world will also be equipped with the weapons available to Israel now, the imperialist strategy will reach an impasse, because the employment of even one atomic bomb inside Israel will wipe it off the face of the earth, but would only do damage to the Islamic world." Even the damage that such a bomb might do to Iran would apparently not be a deterrent.
But Rafsanjani may be reminded that Islamic world has already had the atomic bomb when Pakistan exploded its nuclear device in 1999. And look what happened to Pakistan. With the Taliban slaughtering Pakistanis in the name of their version of Islam, bombing girls' schools, hotels and even hospitals, Pakistan's is facing a threat to its security from within. Pakistan is now a vast killing field where al-Qaeda/Taliban and their acolytes are systematically slaughtering fellow Pakistanis and instead of providing security, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal has become a prime target of the terrorists.
Similarly, after rigging the election, Iran's Shia mullahs are slaughtering fellow Iranians who dare to protest against vote-rigging. Protestors are mowed down by the Revolutionary Guards, or Pasdarns in Fersi and Iranian people are facing long years of repression by the mullahs.
Acquisition of nuclear bombs would give the mullahs an additional weapon to intimidate their own population. A nuclear-armed Shiite Iran would also be a threat to its Sunni Arab neighbours.
The recent nationwide uprising against vote-rigging in Iran has raised the regime's level of insecurity, and the same week the protests began, UN nuclear inspector, Mohamed ElBaradei stated that Iran might be seeking nuclear weapons to send a message to the rest of the world not to "mess with Tehran." The message is also meant for the opponents of the regime inside Iran.
But Iran's nuclear aspirations can be stopped non-violently. Iran's economy is totally dependent on oil exports and as long as oil prices are high, it can afford to pay for extensive subsidies for the rural poor who are the regime's main supporters and at the same time afford its expensive nuclear programme. Saudi Arabia can easily put a stop to Iran's nuclear aspiration by boosting massively its oil production to bring down prices, causing economic turmoil in Iran. If Saudi Arabia acts, Iran will not be able to afford both, and the Shiite mullahs will be forced to give up their nuclear programme. Otherwise, they might face the discontent of the rural poor who are their biggest supporters. The regime has already lost the support of the urban middle classes and it cannot afford to enrage the rural poor. Instead of bombing Iran, Saudi Arabia must be prodded to use its oil weapon against Iran.
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