141m urban population by 2051 likely
More than 140.89 million people would live in the urban areas by 2051 when the country's total population is projected to be 218 million.
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) projects the population size while experts say it may swell to 243 million during the period.
The rise in population is determined by increase in middle age people, urban population and decrease in dependency ratio of the people, the experts said.
The population is growing rapidly, particularly in the urban areas, mostly due to population momentum and migration from the rural areas, said Prof M Ataharul Islam of Dhaka University. Prof Islam is one of the members of BBS Committee on Population and Housing Census.
The population in the urban areas was 30.47 million, out of 130 million, in 2001 and was projected to be 44.06 million by 2011, 63.92 million by 2021, 88.5 million by 3031, 114.5 million by 2041 and 140.89 million by 2051.
The projected figures are based on BBS reports assuming achievement of replacement level fertility by 2011. But experts say this may only be possible by 2021.
Prof Islam, who was a visiting professor at the University of Pennsylvania in the US, said, “If the country's 300 parliamentary constituencies are based on the size of the population, over 192 would come from urban areas in 2051.”
According to the BBS, the population increased in the capital by 56.5 per cent in the decade from 1991 to 2001. During the same period, it increased 44.2 per cent in Chittagong, 33.8 per cent in Khulna and 28.5 per cent in Rajshahi.
Identifying the root cause of rapid population growth in the urban areas, Prof Islam said there is no alternative to agriculture in the rural areas that forces people to come to the cities to seek their fortune.
The government should provide enough support for alternative income generation projects like cottage industries which will encourage people to live in their village homes, Prof Islam said.
“Bangladesh people have a lot of innovative power and if we provide them with some money and training, they will be able to prove their skill. Without it, we cannot stop the population boom in urban areas,” he added.
Describing how census can help make the people skilled, he said, “We have enough population in the working age group and special focus in the planning require to transform the population into manpower which will contribute significantly to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Otherwise, he said, they will remain a burden for the nation.
He said the population in the age group 15-59 was 49 per cent in the 1991 census and 54.6 per cent in 2001.
But the projected percentage will be 64.8 per cent by 2011, 63.9 per cent by 2021, 65.3 per cent by 2031, 63.2 per cent by 2041 and 58.6 per cent by 2051.
It is also noteworthy that the percentage of elderly population (aged 60 years or higher) will keep on increasing during the next decades. The population in this age group will increase from 6.3 percent in 2001 to 18.4 percent in 2051.
This projected increase in the proportion of elderly population will result in increase in the dependency ratio eventually. This ageing process in Bangladesh will require special attention in our planning as well, said the expert.
“If the number of middle age people increases, the opportunity for income generation is also created which is a positive side of population momentum,” said Prof Islam.
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