What does future hold for Libya?
Photo: AFP
Libya's dictator Muammar Gaddafi has been killed. Questions remain about the manner in which he was killed. And Libyans' interests would have been better served if he had been tried rather than killed. Although the images of the late dictator's body being dragged through the streets are disturbing, one can understand why his death is being deliriously welcomed in Libya. Often regarded as a clown in the West, he was a brutal tyrant. His death removes the slim chance that he, or forces loyal to him, might have staged a counter coup. The National Transitional Council is still in a tenuous position, and this event signifies that there's no going back. But what does the future hold? Of all the countries whose rulers have been changed by the Arab Spring, only Libya has really experienced a fundamental transformation of government. In Egypt and Tunisia, the rulers may have been deposed, but the new ones are from the same elites, even as they try to argue that they're committed to another path. Only in Libya has a new ruling elite taken power, and they must try to forge the makings of a new country in the midst of a transition that's still far from complete. They're now just gaining full control over the country, political parties are in their infancy, and the economy is just starting to recover both from the fighting of the past few months and from the military dictator's years of mismanagement. There's also the delicate issue of whether NATO will intervene elsewhere. The geographic and military realities of other countries do not lend themselves to the kind of air-only campaign that was effective in Libya and there's no stomach in any NATO capital to put boots on the ground in support of any Arab uprising. But pressures may rise if the Syrian and Yemeni regimes signal that they're determined to hold on and that the danger of a bloodbath grows in either country. NATO leaders will face the hard question of why Libyan lives and freedom are worth an intervention, while Syrian and Yemeni ones are not.
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