The Chinese are coming
Razia S. Ahmed reflects on ideas of a rising power in a new work
26 October 2007, 18:00 PM
Power Politics in the Asia Pacific
The case of Chinese modernization
Md Aminul Karim
Academic Press & Publishers Library
China will probably be the second biggest power in the world in the future", concludes the author. One could not agree more because of the pragmatism of the Chinese leadership demonstrated so far, and in this context one may offer Zbignew Brezinski's rationale that "China will not adopt a confrontational policy, due mainly to its unparalleled economic growth and the possibility of loosening the grip of the communist party over its people."
Generally speaking, this is a book on power politics in the Asia Pacific region, with special focus on the People's Republic of China (PRC). It deals mainly with (a) China's strategic rise, both economic and military (b) an analysis of the strategic and power scenario of China vis-a-vis Asia Pacific and the USA and (c) the relationship between political and military institutions in the PRC and other nations.
Like all academic research work, the book begins with theoretical rhetoric and builds conjectures such as the "Middle Kingdom" and theories of "compellance and deterrence." In this regard, the author emphasises values of the progenitor Confucius in shaping the moral sentiments of the Chinese people, with which one would disagree because oft the current-day frenzy of wealth creation and consumption points more towards a pattern of Western capitalist society.
The book then moves on to a discussion of possible variables in the strategic environment and security issues such as offering solutions of "containment" and "engagement" followed by an excellent analysis and balanced analysis of relationships. The "objectives matrix" is a useful summation although without the much-used and necessary explanatory variables.
The most significant chapter, and thus, the focus of the work, is the formulation of scenarios of future US-China confrontations in the South China Sea. This reviewer, for one, denies any impending confrontation although it is possible, not probable. As one Chinese diplomat in Dhaka expresses himself strongly on existing perceptions of impending confrontation, "it is not an issue at all because we are not parallel." One wonders if this is due to the "extraordinary technological strides exhibited in two Gulf wars by the US military."
The next few pages introduce the reader to scenario building, which is a simulated game of the real-life problem common in academic exercises. It applies the balance-of-power concept arguing that the post-cold war scenario is conducive to People's Liberation Army weapons development. This idea is fairly plausible and, for this reviewer, augments the mystery of a long-term wait-in-the-wings theory. The Chinese are not in a hurry; from Deng in 1978 to Hu Jintao in 2007 is a long time. The entire period was a gestation for an economic turnaround and defense reinforcement. Md Aminul Karim has created his own artifact towards the end of his thesis (which one is supposed to do) and offered different combinations of strategies, hierarchies, and defense theories. Though it is interesting reading, we can only visualise such scenarios and it does not provide a basis for theories which are at best conjecture.
Finally, in terms of methodology, the author uses an archive analysis which is perfectly acceptable both holistically and academically. The tying up of case studies to the theories is done for generalisation, with the application of a methodology which advances the hypothesis. Then again, any academic knows that measuring tools are artifacts and can be created and applied for endorsement. Probably the author could have quantitatively analysed his cross-sectional country matrix with "power variables."
To conclude, the book offers a clear-cut, powerful and rational reading and the author's practical experience makes it more credible. With careful reading, one can detect the policy nuances offered between the lines for strategists and decision makers.
Professor Razia S Ahmad is a graduate of the Kennedy School of Government and Graduate School of Design, Harvard University. A Ford Foundation scholar at MIT, she has conducted research on China for the last twenty five years.
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