Life Expectancy
Over 50? Check the list to predict your chance to live more 10 yrs
A simple checklist could help doctors estimate whether an older patient will be alive 10 years from now, according to a new study reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association. Although not a crystal ball, researchers say it might help doctors and patients make better decisions on health care.
The researchers created the checklist based on data from a national study of nearly 20,000 US adults older than 50. They found that 12 factors including age, sex, weight, smoking and whether a person has diabetes, lung disease, heart disease or physical limitations such as difficulty walking a few blocks or moving large objects, can give an idea of an older adult's risk of dying within 10 years.
Doctors can get that information using yes-or-no questions, and then assign points for each answer. People with a total score of one have, on average, a 5% chance of dying in the next 10 years. A score of five translates to a 23% chance of dying within a decade, while a score of 10 corresponds to a 70% risk.
But, none of that is set in stone. This provides us with evidence-based numbers to help take better decisions. However, those decisions on whether to screen for or treat a disease should not be based solely on a number.
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