Politics of 2013 in 2015?

Photo: Star File

The political mercury is on the rise as the two archrivals – ruling Awami League and opposition BNP – are preparing for a fresh face off at the beginning of 2015 after a break of around a year.
The AL-led government formed through the January 5 parliamentary election did not face any strong protest for the last one year. BNP's apparent inability to drum up a strong agitation movement proved to be a blessing for the AL to pass a fairly peaceful year in office. The first year in office has made the AL confident and ambitious enough to stay in office for the remaining four years. But now the BNP-led alliance does not want to wait anymore. It wants to intensify its street agitation to force the government to call for an early general election under a non-partisan administration.
How will the ruling AL and its government counter the BNP-led alliance's street movement?   
What happened recently in Gazipur centring Khaleda Zia's rally has left indications of the future strategy of the AL and government. Khaleda Zia was not allowed to hold her scheduled rally there. Her party men were not allowed to take to the streets to enforce the hartal called by BNP to protest the government's ban on her rally. Rather leaders and activists of local AL and its front organisations took control over the streets in the hartal day along side the members of the law enforcement agencies. In protest, BNP-led alliance enforced a countrywide dawn-to dusk hartal last week. Will such an incident as in Gazipur keep repeating in the new-year?    

Photo: Star File

The way things are taking shape it is almost certain that the BNP will not be allowed to hold any of its planned rally in the capital on January 3 or January 5 to condemn the January 5 election. The AL itself will hold a rally in the city's Suhrawardy Udyan on January 5 to celebrate what it levels "the victory day of democracy" to stand by the one-sided election. Its student front Bangladesh Chhattra League has announced a procession in the capital on January 3 to mark its founding anniversary. So, what will the BNP do? It is learnt that the BNP policymakers are thinking about enforcing countrywide hartals for two or three days after January 5. And the BNP-led alliance has planned to intensify gradually the movement from this January. More hartal and road blockade programmes may be announced to mount pressure on the government. This time the BNP-led alliance wants to leave no stone unturned s another failure will jeopardize further their existence and make the government even more autocratic.  
But nothing will be easy for the BNP-led alliance. The ruling AL and the government will do everything to foil the street movement as they did before the January 5 parliamentary polls. The AL will not easily respond to the BNP's call for dialogue to break the political stalemate.

Photo: Star File

All signs suggest both ruling and opposition blocks will play desperately the game to win. This has triggered apprehension of a return of street violence and arson. The country's economy and people still reel from the horror of the political violence in the months preceding the January 5 parliamentary election.       
The government may take steps to consolidate further its position and may appear even more intolerant towards criticism and any sort of street protest. The media may face a critical time in the coming days for their reports and views exposing the wrongdoings of the government and ruling party men.
2015, therefore, may not bring much happiness for the people as long as we continue to have an ailing democracy. People may have to face unexpected and unpleasant events, thanks to our confrontational politics.
The writer is Senior Reporter, The Daily Star.