Infantino's shrinking circle

Gianni Infantino's bid for a fourth and final term as FIFA president next March is increasingly shaping up as a political battle, with his once-solid global support beginning to fracture even as Africa appears determined to remain his strongest pillar.

The collapse of FIFA's controversial FIFA Forward Enterprise (FFE) project has triggered the biggest crisis of Infantino's presidency, exposing rare public divisions within world football's governing body and leaving the Swiss-Italian increasingly reliant on the confederation that first propelled him to power in 2016.

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Criticism intensified yesterday from within FIFA itself. FIFA's chief of global football development Arsene Wenger called the decision to abandon the private investment plan "absolutely necessary," while secretary-general Mattias Grafstrom, long regarded as one of Infantino's closest allies, described the episode as "a sad and reproachable series of events" in an internal email seen by AFP.

The internal dissent followed the resignation of special adviser Carlos Cordeiro and came as UEFA threatened legal action over what it called an opaque proposal to sell a minority stake in FIFA's commercial business. Several European football associations have also withdrawn their backing for Infantino, with reports suggesting more could follow.

The developments have transformed what had appeared to be a straightforward re-election into the most uncertain presidential race Infantino has faced since succeeding Sepp Blatter.

Yet while Europe, Asia, and CONCACAF have openly questioned his leadership, Africa has largely resisted joining the revolt.

Ahead of a Confederation of African Football (CAF) executive committee meeting this week, several influential African football leaders, including CAF vice-president Fouzi Lekjaa of Morocco and FIFA Council members Hany Abo Rida (Egypt), Hamidou Djibrilla (Niger) and Ahmed Yahya (Mauritania), publicly backed Infantino while welcoming his decision to scrap the FFE proposal.

Their support reflects a relationship built through FIFA's expanded development funding. Under Infantino, baseline funding for FIFA's 211 member associations increased significantly, with many African federations depending heavily on those grants to finance infrastructure and national teams.

That financial support has also translated into political loyalty. Africa's 54 member associations make up one of FIFA's largest voting blocs, and they were instrumental in Infantino's victory in 2016. The continent has remained one of his most dependable bases of support since.

Whether that backing alone will be enough is another question.

If opposition from UEFA, parts of Asia and CONCACAF hardens into a coordinated challenge, Africa could become the cornerstone of Infantino's re-election campaign rather than simply one of its pillars.

With just over seven months remaining before FIFA members gather in Rabat to elect the organisation's next president, the abandoned FFE project has reshaped football's political landscape. Infantino's grip on FIFA no longer looks unshakeable, but with Africa still firmly behind him, his hopes of securing one final term seem to be hanging by a thread.