Will new Gaza ceasefire last?

The new ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has immediately raised the same old question: will it last, or is it merely just another pause, providing the prelude for the next round of fighting à la previous ceasefires? We hope the current ceasefire is different and may well last.

There are no winners or losers. Hamas scored a significant political victory as it maintained its ability to fire rockets at Israel up to the last minute before the ceasefire was put into effect, but also suffered massive losses in men and materials. Israel decisively won the military campaign by inflicting huge pain and destruction, but lost politically by creating the perception that Hamas achieved its objectives even though it fell far short of its original demand to lift the blockade altogether.

That said, what has made the ceasefire possible is that both sides have concluded that the continuation of violence will not improve their positions and may well make it considerably worse. The impact of the Israeli and Palestinians' public outcry and the insurmountable pressure on their respective governments was critical to bring an end to the seemingly unending war.

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir
Professor of International Relations
Centre for Global Affairs, NYU