Pak polls too close to call: survey

A public opinion survey yesterday showed that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) enjoys a slim lead at the national level over the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN).

This, however, does not take into account the fact that 13 per cent of the respondents remain undecided. PMLN, in turn, is leading the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) by 5 percentage points.

In the election's main battleground, Punjab, the survey shows a competitive race: PMLN has a province-wide lead of 7 percentage points over PTI. 

The Herald-SDPI survey finds that 14 per cent of the respondents in Punjab remain undecided. It is this group of voters that will clearly determine the final result of the 2018 election. This finding is consistent with the polls conducted by Gallup and Pulse Consultants during May 2018 which also show that undecided voters hold the election in Punjab in the balance.

To win a majority in the province, therefore, PTI has to swing a substantial portion of the undecided voters to its side. PMLN, too, will need to ensure that a large part of these voters ultimately vote for it.

Outside Punjab, PMLN is facing another challenge: While 40 per cent of the survey respondents in the province support the party, backing for it falls dramatically in other provinces. It has 10 per cent support in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 11 per cent in Balochistan and only 4 per cent in Sindh. To have a chance of forming the next federal government, it has to not only hold on to its lead in central Punjab but also win by more than a slim margin in the province's districts outside this region.

For PTI, the path to forming the federal government runs through Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The survey shows that 42 per cent of the respondents in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa support PTI which has a 30 percentage point lead over other main contenders — PPP, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) and PMLN.

The survey shows that 54 per cent of the respondents in Sindh support PPP, giving it a substantial lead of 40 points over its challengers — PTI and Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA). The party's continued dominance in Sindh is likely to make it an important player in the next parliament.