Fewer infections, more chronic illness: The world’s changing health crisis

The world has achieved impressive success in reducing deaths from infectious diseases. Since the 1990s, illnesses such as tuberculosis, malaria and HIV/AIDS have caused far fewer deaths and disabilities, while survival among newborns has improved dramatically. These gains reflect decades of investment in vaccines, treatment and maternal care.

However, the Global Burden of Disease survey by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine warns that a different set of threats is rapidly taking centre stage. Non-communicable diseases now account for half of the ten leading causes of early death and disability worldwide. Heart disease remains the top cause, but diabetes has risen sharply and is now among the leading contributors to poor health. Mental health conditions, particularly anxiety and depression, are also increasing at an alarming pace.

From 2013 to 2023, healthy years of life lost due to diabetes and common mental disorders rose steadily across the globe. Unlike infectious diseases, these conditions often affect people for decades, limiting their ability to work, care for families and live independently.

The report points to familiar but stubborn risk factors. High blood pressure continues to be the single biggest cause of early death and disability, followed by air pollution and smoking. While progress has been made in reducing harm from tobacco use and polluted air, health loss linked to high blood sugar and excess body weight is growing. Rising obesity and poor diet are fuelling this trend.

The findings underline a clear shift in global health priorities. Winning the fight against infections is not enough. To protect future generations, governments and communities must focus on prevention – promoting healthier lifestyles, tackling environmental risks and expanding support for mental health.