Bangladesh’s El Niño risk is bigger than weather

Bangladesh’s vulnerability to climate change is well-established, but the greater concern lies in how climate shocks can interact with the existing economic challenges. The intensifying El Niño event in 2026 is particularly worrisome because it coincides with disruptions in global energy and fertiliser markets. El Niño is a natural phenomenon caused by abnormal warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns across the world. In South Asia, El Niño can contribute to delayed monsoons, irregular rainfall, and temperature extremes. The US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there is a greater than 90 percent chance of the El Niño turning very strong in October-December. There is also a 75 percent chance that its strength could exceed that of the previous events dating back to 1950. The 2015-16 El Niño affected the food security of 6-10 crore people. By the end of 2027, at least 4.9 crore more people could experience acute food insecurity due to the 2026-27 event, according to WFP.

For Bangladesh, the immediate concern is agriculture. The country’s food security depends heavily on the performance of its Aman and Boro rice season. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), in 2024-25, Boro rice accounted for around 53 percent and Aman rice accounted for around 41 percent of the total rice production. This yield comes at a high hydrological cost because supplemental irrigation is necessary for Boro farming. Furthermore, according to the BBS Labour Force Survey 2024, nearly 45 percent of the population are employed in agriculture. This makes any disruption to rainfall, temperature or agricultural inputs potentially significant for rural incomes too.

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In Bangladesh, climate change is already increasing pressure on agricultural systems through heat stress, floods, droughts and salinity. Hence, El Niño should not be viewed as an isolated weather event. Per the World Bank’s global food security update estimates, if El Niño develops as expected, rice output could drop by 20-50 percent in the affected regions, with South Asia being one of the most exposed. The impact of less agricultural production would extend beyond the farmers. Reduced yields can tighten domestic supplies and raise food prices. At the same time, climate-related production losses in major exporting countries can increase import costs. Bangladesh could consequently face higher food prices even when domestic production losses are relatively limited.

The food production challenge is fuelled by higher input costs. Bangladesh imports over 85 percent of its total fertiliser demand. This leaves its agricultural production highly exposed to international fertiliser prices and supply disruptions. In the first five months of 2026, global fertiliser prices increased by 35 percent compared with the same period in 2025. Higher fertiliser prices can raise production costs and potentially encourage lower application rates, which could further affect yields. In June 2026, the World Bank approved an emergency programme to finance the import of 600,000 metric tonnes of fertiliser for Bangladesh. This is expected to support approximately 14 lakh hectares of rice production cultivated by smallholder farmers.

Energy prices create another layer of pressure. Agriculture depends on fuel and electricity for irrigation, mechanised farming, transportation and processing. Higher oil and gas prices mean higher costs of producing and moving food. This is critical as Bangladesh relies substantially on imported energy. In 2024-25, 281.89 billion cubic feet of LNG was imported—31 percent of total gas consumption. In 2023-24, power generation accounted for 41 percent of the total gas consumption. Hence, any disruption in gas supply can substantially affect electricity generation and economic activity.

The interaction between climate and energy shocks is perhaps the greatest concern. A climate shock can reduce agricultural yields, while a simultaneous energy shock can raise the cost of irrigation, fertiliser, transport and food processing. The result is a potentially reinforcing cycle of lower production, higher costs, and higher food prices. A high volume of imported energy also creates macroeconomic risks. Global disruptions can place pressure on foreign exchange reserves and public finances because the country is a net importer of fuel and gas. A CGE analysis by Sanem estimated that a sharp short-term fossil fuel price shock could shrink the GDP by 0.79 percent and increase inflation by 1.19 percent. Poorer, rural and farm households bear the disproportionate share of the burden. A GTAP-based simulation by Sanem estimated that a combination of higher oil and LNG prices, rising international freight costs, and declining remittance inflows from the Gulf countries could reduce Bangladesh’s GDP by 1.2-3 percent in the short to medium term.

These figures are not estimates of El Niño’s direct economic impact. But they demonstrate Bangladesh’s underlying vulnerability to external energy and commodity shocks. If a climate-related agricultural shock occurs simultaneously with the existing energy and power crises, the combined impact could be considerably larger.

The policy response should therefore address food and energy security together. Bangladesh needs bigger investment in climate-resilient agriculture, including stress-tolerant rice varieties, improved water management, efficient irrigation, and better weather forecasting. Expanding solar-powered irrigation along with efficient groundwater management could reduce farmers’ dependence on fossil fuels while also lowering exposure to volatile energy prices.

For Bangladesh, El Niño is more than a temporary weather disturbance. Its significance lies in how it interacts with the existing vulnerabilities in agriculture, food markets, and energy supply. Climate change increases the underlying exposure, while El Niño can provide an additional short-term shock. At the same time, high dependence on imported energy and fertiliser can intensify the economic consequences. Strengthening climate-resilient agriculture, diversifying energy sources, and protecting vulnerable households should be treated as complementary elements of the country’s economic and climate policy.

Sudeepto Roy is research associate at the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem). He can be reached at sudeeptoroy232@gmail.com.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own. 

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