Rajuk’s short-sighted DAP puts millions at risk in a major quake

Unplanned urbanisation, violations of the National Building Code and the Detailed Area Plan (DAP), and rampant filling of wetlands with sand for housing projects have made Dhaka the riskiest city in the country. Uncontrolled groundwater extraction and the rapid concretisation of the city—effectively halting the natural recharge of aquifers—have created massive underground voids, further increasing the risk. Narrow roads, non-resilient structural designs, and a lack of central control over gas and electricity distribution have made Dhaka a recipe for disaster in the event of a major earthquake.

Rajdhani Unnayan Kartripakkha (Rajuk)'s survey under the Urban Resilience Project stated that a 6.9-magnitude earthquake originating from the Tangail's Madhupur fault would result in the destruction of 40 percent of buildings in Dhaka. Such findings are simply terrifying. According to media reports, after the recent earthquakes, Rajuk identified nearly 300 buildings in Dhaka as being at risk. Yet there is still no clarity on what steps have been taken following this identification. After coming to power, the interim government and Rajuk caved in to pressure from real estate companies and revised the DAP despite strong opposition from activists, academics and urban planners. The revision now allows higher structures on narrower roads with inadequate essential services. If this series of earthquakes does not prompt a reconsideration of that decision, it is difficult to imagine what will.

Earthquakes are chaotic phenomena that do not depend on scale. Their unpredictability is precisely what makes them so destructive and life-threatening. One can never know for certain when or where they will strike. Even scientists at the United States Geological Survey (USGS) can only estimate the probability of a significant earthquake occurring in a specific area over a given period. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department reported four earthquakes of magnitude 4 or above in the past 30 days, all of which originated within the country. Among them, the 5.7-magnitude earthquake originating in Madhabdi, Narsingdi, instilled fear and panic due to its shallowness and proximity to Dhaka. In addition to the Dawki fault and the Indo-Burma Megathrust, the recent discovery of another fault line within the country—capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude 6—should raise serious concerns about national disaster preparedness.

In 2010, a 7.0-magnitude earthquake in Haiti resulted in an estimated death toll of over three lakh, according to the Haitian government's official count. The primary reason for this staggering figure was the absence of an enforced building code. To this day, Haiti remains a grim example of how unregulated infrastructure can devastate a city. By contrast, Japan—despite being one of the most seismically active countries in the world—has significantly reduced casualties and damage through rigorous building codes, sophisticated early-warning systems, nationwide drills and a culture of personal preparedness. This includes knowing evacuation routes, turning off gas supplies immediately, and using stairs instead of elevators.

Let us assume Dhaka adopted all these measures. Have we considered where people would evacuate to? Are there adequate public spaces in the city that could be used as temporary shelters or as bases for emergency rescue operations in such a crisis?

Public spaces, such as parks and playgrounds, are integral to earthquake management. They serve as safe gathering points away from buildings, electrical wires and gas lines, and can function as hubs for emergency response, shelter and recovery by providing food and medical aid in a post-earthquake situation. Dhaka's earthquake management strategy must include freeing the remaining parks and open spaces—such as Panthakunja Park, Anwara Udyan, Suhrawardy Udyan, Osmani Udyan, Tajuddin Park and others—from encroachment and illegal occupation. Beyond this, more open spaces must be created in every area of the city. These spaces should be designed for multifunctionality, accessibility and resilience well before disasters strike. Features such as access to water, communication points and clear layouts should be incorporated to support both immediate safety and long-term recovery. If real estate companies can acquire land and develop buildings in Dhaka, the government should be equally capable of acquiring land to create public spaces for a more resilient city. Such spaces are not only vital during emergencies; they also help foster a sense of community.

Earthquake drills in educational institutions, factories, office buildings and densely populated areas must be conducted regularly. Earthquake resilience must be ensured in every building, particularly in schools, factories and offices. Mandatory evacuation plans should be in place for each building, and residents must be familiar with them. Every neighbourhood should develop an emergency volunteer response team through community engagement. There has been considerable discussion about identifying buildings at risk; following such assessments, structures requiring retrofitting must be upgraded accordingly, while high-risk buildings should be dismantled safely.

In Bangladesh, authorities often wake up after a disaster, only to fall back into inaction once the issue fades from public attention. Rajuk cannot afford to wait for a catastrophe to strike. The government should roll back its decision to allow increased building heights on narrow roads through the latest DAP revision. We cannot allow the lives of millions to be endangered for the benefit of real estate interests.

Disaster management in Bangladesh has largely focused on specific regions, particularly coastal areas, and hazards such as floods and cyclones. Urban disaster preparedness, however, remains woefully inadequate. There are no specialised emergency response teams for earthquakes in the country. The Rana Plaza collapse in 2013 took 19 days to conclude rescue operations, and the failure of a single building exposed the severe lack of machinery, training and preparedness for such scenarios. This must change. Area-specific disaster management plans, grounded in proper risk assessments, are urgently needed. When it comes to earthquakes, it is not a question of if, but when. And when it happens, we must be prepared.

Amirul Rajiv and Naim Ul Hasan are coordinators at the Bangladesh Tree Protection Movement.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own. 

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