Can AI make Bida more effective?

Somewhere in Dhaka, a diplomat wakes up to a familiar routine. Briefings. Reports. Summaries. Meetings. What he does not see is what has already changed overnight.

A cyber intrusion attempt in Eastern Europe. A sudden shift in semiconductor export controls. A quiet naval movement in the Indo-Pacific. A surge in AI-generated narratives is shaping public opinion across borders.

None of these arrives as “events”. They arrive as signals. And by the time they become visible, they are already too late. This is the paradox of modern diplomacy.

The world no longer changes through announcements. It shifts through patterns -- subtle, fragmented and often invisible. Bangladesh is not at the centre of global power rivalry. But it does not need to be.

When tensions rise in the Strait of Hormuz, fuel prices in Dhaka move. When shipping routes are disrupted, export timelines shift. When cyber risks escalate, financial systems feel the pressure. We are not in the theatre of conflict. But we live in its consequences.

And those consequences are no longer triggered by events. They are triggered by signals that few are trained to read.

Traditionally, diplomacy has been a craft of negotiation. A discipline built on relationships, experience and timing. But today, that is no longer enough.

Because the world is no longer slow enough to be negotiated into clarity. It must be interpreted in real time.

Artificial intelligence is often framed as a tool of automation. In diplomacy, its role is entirely different. It is not here to replace diplomats. It is here to expand their field of vision. To scan what no human team can scan. To connect what no single report can connect. To detect patterns before they become crises.

But here lies another paradox. Having access to more data does not automatically create better decisions. In fact, it often creates noise.

The real advantage lies not in having information -- but in building the institutional capacity to interpret it. This is where most countries will fail. Not because they lack technology. But because they lack the architecture to turn signals into strategy.

What is needed is not just the adoption of AI. It represents a new layer of capability -- something we may call diplomatic intelligence. Not intelligence in the classical sense of espionage, but intelligence as a system. A system that continuously reads the world.

Imagine a Ministry of Foreign Affairs where AI systems quietly monitor global policy shifts, economic indicators, technological alliances and media narratives. They detect anomalies. They surface weak signals. They connect distant dots. But they do not decide. That remains human. Diplomats interpret. They contextualise. They judge intent, culture and consequence.

And from that interaction emerges something powerful: not just information but foresight.

This same capability can quietly redefine how countries like Bangladesh position themselves for foreign investment.  Investors do not move only on incentives; they move on expectations of stability, policy direction and future risk.

Diplomatic intelligence would allow the Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (Bida) to read emerging supply chain shifts, anticipate regulatory changes in key markets and identify sectors where global capital is about to flow before it becomes obvious.

Instead of reacting to investor interest, Bangladesh can proactively signal readiness -- aligning policies, infrastructure and narratives with where capital is heading.

In a world of uncertainty, the countries that attract investment are not always the largest or the cheapest, but the ones that appear most predictable in an unpredictable system. The ability to read signals, therefore, becomes not just a diplomatic advantage but an economic one.

There are early signs of this model emerging globally, though not always under the same name. Countries like Singapore and the UAE have begun integrating real-time data analytics into policy and investment decisions, using predictive insights to anticipate shifts in trade, technology and capital flows.

During recent global supply chain disruptions, some governments were able to reposition themselves quickly -- offering targeted incentives and regulatory clarity just as firms began diversifying away from concentrated manufacturing hubs.

These were not reactive moves. They were informed by continuous signal monitoring -- tracking geopolitical tensions, logistics bottlenecks and corporate relocation patterns.

The lesson is subtle but important. Competitive advantage is no longer built only on resources or geography. It is increasingly built on the ability to sense where the world is moving before it gets there.

Over time, this creates a different kind of diplomacy. One that does not wait for crises. One that reads them before they happen. One that does not react to the world -- but anticipates it.

For countries like Bangladesh, this is not a luxury. It is a necessity. Because in an interconnected world, vulnerability does not come from weakness alone. It comes from not seeing change early enough. And in the coming decade, the countries that matter will not be the ones with the most power. They will be the ones with the clearest signal-reading capability.

Diplomacy was never merely about negotiation; it is, at its core, a system of sensing, decoding and shaping realities before they harden into outcomes. And those who fail to build this capability will not lose influence dramatically. They will lose it silently -- one missed signal at a time.

The author is a research affiliate at MIT and member of UNESCO AI Ethics Experts Without Borders. He can be reached at zulkarin@mit.edu