Oil shocks to fuel inflation, weaken taka

Global oil price shocks are likely to affect Bangladesh’s economy mainly through higher inflation, a weaker exchange rate, and limited output losses, according to a study by the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).

The study says that the overall impact will depend on the scale of global oil price increases, but the main transmission channels are expected to remain the same over the medium to long term. Rising energy costs are likely to feed into domestic prices, weaken the taka, and slightly slow economic growth.

By analysing different scenarios based on a 20 percent to 60 percent rise in global oil prices and using an econometric model, the CPD said losses in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) -- a measure of the value of goods and services produced in an economy -- would remain relatively contained, ranging between 0.21 percent and 0.53 percent.

In contrast, the inflationary impact could be far more pronounced, with price pressures rising from 0.6 percent in the first quarter to as high as 13.6 percent in the fifth year. This reflects the strong pass-through of fuel costs across Bangladesh’s supply chains, the CPD said in a paper presented at the fourth Bangladesh-China Renewable Energy Forum at Lakeshore Hotel in Dhaka yesterday.

The analysis shows that consumer prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), would rise across all scenarios -- mild, moderate, and severe -- with the impact becoming stronger over time.

In the short term, inflation is projected to increase by 0.60 percent, 1.11 percent, and 1.55 percent within the first quarter under the three respective scenarios. The pressure would continue to build, reaching 1.12 percent, 2.06 percent, and 2.87 percent after one year.

Over the longer term, the impact becomes much sharper. By the fifth year, inflation is expected to rise to 5.27 percent under mild shocks, 9.72 percent under moderate shocks, and as high as 13.57 percent under severe shocks.

At the same time, the Bangladeshi taka is projected to depreciate by between 0.56 percent and 4.5 percent under different scenarios, driven by higher fuel import bills and related balance-of-payments pressures.

The CPD warned that Bangladesh will continue to bear the burden of the ongoing energy shock for years, as structural vulnerabilities and accumulated costs will not disappear immediately even if global tensions ease.

Given the limited fiscal space, the think tank suggested that the government may need to scale down its budget estimates for the fiscal year 2026-2027 to accommodate rising energy-related expenditures.

It also cautioned that the crisis could further intensify the country’s debt burden. Increased government borrowing may crowd out private sector access to credit, tightening financial conditions across the economy.

To address these challenges, the CPD recommended accelerating the transition towards renewable energy while using domestic natural gas as a “transition fuel” to reduce dependence on imports.

Policy momentum appears to be building. The BNP government has recently announced a target to generate 10,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity from renewable sources by 2030 and has formed a committee to prepare the necessary roadmap.

The CPD urged the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources to prepare a clear roadmap to achieve the 10,000 MW renewable energy target through both utility-scale and distributed systems.

The think tank said the target could unlock around $10 billion in investment. It also recommended reviving viable cancelled projects through transparent tendering to speed up implementation.