As a super El Niño looms, Is Bangladesh ready for the shock?

As we have been told by weather forecasters, there is a strong possibility of a “super” El Niño, possibly the most powerful in recorded history, coming to take hold across the world in the coming months. For reference, they are looking back to 1877, the year when the sea surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific region experienced an estimated temperature rise of 2.7 degrees Celsius. The impact was catastrophic: the super El Niño of 1877-78 destroyed crops throughout India, China, Brazil, Australia and parts of Africa, triggering a global drought and a resulting in famine that lasted for at least two years and killed some five crore people. That accounted for three to four percent of the world population at the time. Today, that ratio would translate to a minimum of 25 crore people. As some researchers put it, it was “arguably the worst environmental disaster to ever befall humanity.”

In today’s world, how would a super El Niño impact the world? Are we at risk of a similarly devastating fate or worse?

The good news is, we are not in the late 1870s, a time plagued by colonial rulers destroying indigenous food systems. And we have something people at that time did not: warning.

After the El Niño of 1982-83, the world came together to completely transform ocean monitoring. Four decades later, a vast network of more than 4,000 instruments across the Pacific Ocean continually measure air pressure, wind patterns, and salt levels in the water, offering a high-detail snapshot of the ocean’s condition in real time.

The bad news is, the world is warmer than it used to be in the 1980s. As Dr Deepti Singh, associate professor at the School of the Environment in Washington State University, who has studied the 1877 super El Niño, explained, “What is different now is that our atmosphere and oceans are substantially warmer than they were in the 1870s, which means the associated extremes could be more extreme.”

What should Bangladesh do right now?

For Bangladesh, a severe El Niño means poor monsoon rains. Poor monsoon rains mean poor Aman rice harvest, which translates into increased prices for food. Inflation is already on the rise in a country of more than 17 crore people, making hunger an impending reality.

We cannot stop the Pacific Ocean from warming, but we can stop that warming from turning into a catastrophe on the Padma, Meghna and Jamuna river systems. The government, NGOs, aid agencies, and even village communities can take pragmatic measures to prepare for weathering the brunt of El Niño. First, don’t treat this as just another El Niño. The last super El Niño (2015-16) gave us delayed floods and heat stress. An 1877-class event is different. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) should make it clear that it is not a normal seasonal prediction—double-checking with experts is recommended—and develop forecast-based early warning systems that have been tested before by various organisations, which would provide timely information to farmers on planting, irrigation practices, and drought-resistant seeds. Local-level contingency plans in districts, upazilas, and unions should be available.

Second, before the next dry season (December 2026 onwards) fully sets in, the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) should conduct a rapid, district-level survey of groundwater levels, river water levels, and reservoir storage (for instance, the Kaptai Lake). Identify which upazilas are already on the edge.

Third, a “lean season” food security buffer must be prepared. The real impact of the super El Niño will not be felt during the heat period, but after about six to nine months, when there will be no crops. This can only be mitigated if the government plans to expand food distribution channels in the northern and western parts of the country, such as the Barind Tract, the greater Rangpur-Rajshahi region, and the char areas.

Fourth, we must re-learn the old wisdom for agricultural resilience. In the past, communities employed resilience practices such as grain banks, crop diversity, and alternate wetting and drying. Colonial rulers destroyed the system to a significant extent. In today’s world, we could re-establish resilience through current agronomic practices such as drought-resistant paddy varieties. Cultivate rice varieties and other crops that withstand drought and high temperatures. Ensure adequate irrigation, water collection from rainfall, and groundwater use, particularly in Barind and other arid areas. Encourage crop diversification and proper storage systems to mitigate shortages.

Fifth, El Niño does not know borders. If monsoon rains fail in South Asia, countries that export rice will certainly cut back on their exports. Bangladesh must begin negotiations with those countries, or even with international platforms who are ready to provide us with a minimum amount of rice through an agreement. Similarly, we should look into working with Bhutan and Nepal on more hydropower sharing; if our water dries up, we may need their electricity.

Finally, as Dr Deepti Singh said, El Niño’s effects “will cascade globally through interconnected socioeconomic systems.” This implies that if there is a failure in the soybean production in Brazil and palm oil in Indonesia, the international prices of edible oil will skyrocket. The relevant authorities should make a robust plan by securing alternative supply contracts.

Preparation, not panic

The scale of 1877 super El Niño fatalities is unlikely to occur again, not due to any change in nature but because we now have monitoring and modelling systems. However, no technological advancement can help us if we don’t prepare on time. Now is the time when our early warning systems, grain stocks, water pumping systems and, most importantly, our national will for combating disaster will be tested. Only proper readiness will help us survive the looming disaster.

Rajib Kumar Saha is PhD candidate under the School of the Environment at Washington State University in the US, and assistant director (geology) at the Geological Survey of Bangladesh. He can be reached at rajibkumar.saha@wsu.edu.

Views expressed in this article are the author's own. 

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