What happens if Alvarez stays at Atletico?

Last week, Julian Alvarez walked off the Atletico Madrid pitch alone.

His teammates had gone across to salute the supporters after Sunday's 2-2 draw with Villarreal. Alvarez did not join them, after the club advised him to stay away from the crowd.

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Moments earlier, Atletico supporters had made their feelings clear, loudly jeering the striker amid his desire to leave for Barcelona.

It was an awkward image. It also raised the bigger football question facing Diego Simeone: what happens if Alvarez stays?

Atletico have spent the summer making their position clear. They will not sell Alvarez to Barcelona, and with the transfer window closing on Tuesday, they appear increasingly likely to get their way.

But keeping the Argentine is only the beginning. The real challenge will be getting him fully invested in the season.

Atletico paid up to €95 million to sign Alvarez from Manchester City in 2024. He has since become one of the most important players in Simeone's attack, scoring 29 goals in all competitions last season.

There is no obvious football solution in which Atletico simply leave him out.

Alvarez can play as the central striker, drop deeper to link midfield with attack or operate alongside another forward. His movement is particularly important to Simeone because he can pull defenders out of position and create space for teammates.

That makes his situation different from that of a player who can be replaced without changing the team's structure.

If Alvarez stays, Simeone will almost certainly have to keep using him. The question is whether he can get the same player back.

A striker's relationship with supporters can change quickly. Goals are the easiest currency. If Alvarez starts scoring regularly, works hard and performs in big matches, the boos can eventually turn into applause.

But the opposite is also true.

Every missed chance, poor performance or visible frustration could bring the transfer saga back into the conversation. Instead of being judged simply as Atletico's No 9, Alvarez risks being judged as the player who wanted to leave.

That puts pressure on Simeone as well.

The Argentine coach has to protect the team from the dispute without ignoring the player's importance. He cannot afford to make Alvarez a permanent distraction, but he also cannot afford to lose one of his best attacking players because of a transfer disagreement.

There is an obvious precedent at the club.

Antoine Griezmann once angered Atletico supporters by flirting with Barcelona and eventually joining the Catalan club in 2019. He returned to Madrid in 2021 and gradually rebuilt his relationship with the fans, eventually becoming Atletico's record goalscorer.

Alvarez's situation is different, though. Griezmann eventually chose to return. Alvarez could be staying because Atletico have refused to let him go.

And he still has potential alternatives.

Barcelona continue to regard him as their preferred option for the No 9 position after the departures of Robert Lewandowski and Ferran Torres. Arsenal have also been linked with the Argentina international as Mikel Arteta looks to strengthen his forward line.

Arteta was asked about Arsenal's interest and offered little.

"Don't go there," he said. "I'm not going to make any comment about any player that is not with us."

For Barcelona, time is now the problem. Atletico's refusal to negotiate leaves them with little room before the window closes.

For Arsenal, the situation could depend on how much Alvarez wants a move to England.

For Atletico, however, the calculation is simpler. They believe Alvarez is too valuable to lose to a direct domestic rival.

The danger is that winning that battle in the transfer market does not automatically solve the football problem.

Alvarez will have to convince his teammates, his manager and eventually the supporters that he is ready to give Atletico everything. Simeone will have to give him a role important enough to justify keeping him, while making sure the rest of the squad does not become distracted by the saga.

And Alvarez will have to perform.

Keeping Alvarez would be Atletico's victory in the transfer battle. Making him happy, productive and trusted again would be the real victory.