Fuel stocks tight amid geopolitical tensions, but relief in sight

Bangladesh’s fuel stocks remain under strain, with current reserves sufficient for roughly 9 to 14 days, according to the latest Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) report.

Diesel reserves stand at 1.53 lakh tonnes -- enough for about 12 days based on -- while petrol and octane stocks are estimated at 16,500 tonnes and 10,700 tonnes respectively.

Based on the average daily demand of March 2025, diesel stock is enough to last around 12 days while petrol stock will last 11 days, and octane 9 days. Crude oil reserves are estimated at 13 to 14 days.

There was much concern early March when diesel stocks fell below 10 days following the US-Israel war on Iran, sparking panic buying.

The government introduced rationing before Eid and later increased supply, but logistical disruptions during the Eid holidays left many filling stations without fuel.

“A lack of coordination across the supply chain, from depot operations to banking services, has further complicated the situation,” said Syed Sajjadul Karim Kabul, president of a faction of the Petrol Pump Owners Association.

According to the latest BPC analysis, the current stock levels are manageable in short term, but leave little buffer against disruptions.

BPC report noted that three vessels from Malaysia are expected to arrive at Chattogram port between March 25–27, adding an equivalent of about 6.5 days of diesel supply.

In April, six ships from Indonesia are scheduled to deliver refined fuel equivalent to 12.5 days of diesel coverage. Local private suppliers are also contributing to the supply chain.

However, uncertainties persist on the crude oil front due to geopolitical tensions. Shipments from the Middle East face complications around the Strait of Hormuz, while suppliers from China and Malaysia have declared force majeure, raising concerns about April supplies.

Officials are exploring alternative sourcing, with additional imports approved from Indonesia and potential purchases from Kazakhstan and the Netherlands.

Diplomatic efforts are also underway to facilitate imports from Russia and resolve transit challenges.

Authorities said supply management measures, monitoring of distribution, prevention of smuggling, and coordination with port and shipping authorities should help avoid major disruptions if shipments arrive on schedule.

Despite repeated attempts, BPC Chairman Md Rezanur Rahman could not be reached for comments.